Political analyst Ahmed Raji has dismissed the potential of the Obidient movement to secure a presidential victory for former Labour Party candidate Peter Obi, arguing that the support base lacks the national structure and political diversity needed to win a general election in Nigeria.

Raji made the remarks while speaking on Sunday Politics, a current affairs programme aired by Trust TV, where he insisted that Obi’s popularity alone is insufficient to translate into electoral victory without broader grassroots mobilisation and a robust political structure.

“This is a movement, not a political party,” Raji said. “People may sympathise with Obi, but that does not necessarily mean they will vote for him. If the Obidient movement wants to test its strength, it should register as a political party rather than ride on the back of coalitions.”

According to him, Obi’s current strategy mirrors other regional movements that failed to convert their popularity into national success.
Drawing a comparison with former Kano governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Raji noted that despite securing over a million votes in Kano during the 2023 elections, Kwankwaso’s influence could not make him president.

“The same applies to Obi,” Raji added. “A million votes in one zone or the popularity of a movement cannot make you president in a country as diverse as Nigeria. He needs to cross regions, engage with grassroots voters, and gain widespread acceptability.”

Raji also dismissed arguments that President Bola Tinubu’s electoral losses in his home state of Lagos and parts of the South-West delegitimised his victory, stating that Tinubu’s overall performance in other regions compensated for those shortcomings.

“Yes, President Tinubu lost Lagos, but he made up for it with wins in places like Kaduna. You can’t say the same for Obi. What he lost in the North cannot be recovered with votes from the Southeast alone,” Raji argued.

He maintained that true political success in Nigeria requires a national spread and a strong presence across ethnic and religious divides, something he believes the Obidient movement is yet to achieve.

“The presidency is not just about emotion or online momentum. It requires real structure, ground support, and a convincing national message. As of today, the Obidient movement alone cannot deliver that for Peter Obi,” he said.