The Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan have hosted Afghan migrants for decades, with roughly 3.75 million Afghan nationals residing in the former and 2.05 million residing in the latter. While cross-border movement has been consistently characterized by economic drivers, healthcare access, family visits, and security, 2024 also saw movements defined by policies, statements by officials, and public sentiment calling for the expulsion of Afghan nationals from both the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan. This began in late 2023, when officials in both countries called for the deportation of undocumented foreigners, followed by several efforts to renew deportation initiatives throughout 2024. These included Pakistan’s “Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan (IFRP),” for which potential new phases were announced in April and later again in June, announcements by Iranian officials in September to deport two million Afghan nationals by early 2025, plans for a border wall between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Afghanistan, and initiatives to reduce the number of Afghan migrants in the Islamic Republic of Iran by ten per cent each year. In November, Afghan nationals were barred from staying in Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad unless able to obtain new permissions.
To better monitor return and deportation trends, as well as other cross-border movement, IOM DTM Afghanistan re-launched its Flow Monitoring (FM) activity at the beginning of 2024 to provide critical insights into the volume, intended destinations, reasons for movement, and intended lengths of stay of those moving across Afghanistan’s borders. This report includes data analysis on crossborder movement along Afghanistan’s borders with the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan from 1 October to 31 December 2024. During this period, DTM counted 983,055 individuals entering Afghanistan and 740,356 individuals leaving Afghanistan. DTM also interviewed 76,415 individuals regarding their reasons for movement and intentions.
Data was collected from ten different crossing points with the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan. All assessed border points fall into two categories: those connected to the National Highway, or “main” crossing points, which include Islam Qala, Milak, Spin Boldak, and Torkham, and those not connected to the National Highway, which include Abu Nasr Farahi, Bahramcha, Angor Ada, Ghulam Khan, Nazar Posta and Pathan. Analyses throughout the report will reflect the differences between these types of crossing points.
The following report includes analysis from FM’s two main methodological components: Flow Monitoring Counting (FMC) and Flow Monitoring Surveys (FMS). There are four main sections: 1) Cumulative Flow Trends, which is linked to the FMC and summarizes trends and demographics of all recorded crossborder movements, 2) Mobility Dynamics: The Islamic Republic of Iran, and 3) Mobility Dynamics: Pakistan, which are both linked to the FMS and include analyses of the reasons, documentation status, and intentions of cross-border movements, and 4) a conclusion that briefly highlights key findings from the quarter, including longitudinal comparisons with previous quarters and characterizations of mobility dynamics at both borders.
