Despite constituting a significant portion of Kwara State’s population, no Christian has governed the state since 1983, and the top seat has remained largely inaccessible.

With mounting frustration over political marginalisation, Christian leaders and stakeholders are mobilising, insisting that the time has come for a power shift in the interest of equity and inclusion.

But the question of whether a Christian could emerge as governor of Kwara State in the 2027 polls is once again bubbling to the surface, especially among Christian political and religious leaders. It reflects a deeper undercurrent of frustration and a yearning for inclusion in the power calculus of a state where Muslims have historically held political dominance.

Unofficial demographic estimates put the Christian population in Kwara at between 35 and 45 per cent, while Muslims are believed to make up between 55 and 65 per cent. Despite this near-even split, Christians have found themselves perpetually boxed out of the state’s highest political office.

The last time a Christian served as governor was in 1983, when Chief Cornelius Adebayo of the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) thwarted the re-election bid of Adamu Attah of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). That short-lived victory was abruptly truncated by December 31, 1983, military coup led by then Major General Muhammadu Buhari.

Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, no Christian has come close to occupying the Ahmadu Bello Government House in Ilorin. Instead, the role of deputy governor has served as a political consolation prize, with figures such as Simeon Sayomi, Joel Ogundeji, Peter Kisira, and the current deputy, Kayode Alabi, occupying the number two position. But with the 2027 elections fast approaching, a new sense of urgency is taking hold in the Christian community.

Many believe that after decades of playing second fiddle, it is time for a Christian to take the reins. Pa Olusola Ajolore, the longest-serving Secretary of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) in Kwara State, insists that the time has come for Christians to assert themselves politically.

“Our people in Kwara should rise up and play the political game that will put them in power come 2027,” Ajolore said. “We are not second-class citizens in Kwara. Democracy is about strategy, not violence. Let us claim our rightful place.”

Ajolore, who will be marking his centenary in 2027, emphasised that the agitation is for future generations. He also called for a complete overhaul of the 1999 Constitution, which he said has failed to deliver inclusive governance. “The Japa syndrome among youth today is a symptom of systemic failure. During our time, education came with scholarships and dignity. The current constitution must be reworked through a referendum,” he noted.

CAN spokesman Shina Ibiyemi, a legal practitioner, echoed these sentiments and presented stark statistics to illustrate the political marginalisation of Christians in the state.

“Out of six House of Representatives members from Kwara, none is Christian. In the Senate, there is no Christian representation. In the 24-member state House of Assembly, Christians hold only six seats. At the local government level, we have just four Christian chairmen out of sixteen,” he said.

“This is the worst marginalisation Christians have experienced in Kwara since the return of democracy. Even during the era of the late Olusola Saraki, Christians had more access to political appointments and elected positions,” Ibiyemi added, describing the situation as a “calculated political extinction.”

Ibiyemi was quick to stress that his position was not driven by fanaticism but by the democratic principle of inclusive representation. “Politics should reflect our diversity. It is not a call for religious politics but for equitable participation,” he said.

There are multiple structural reasons for the Muslim dominance in Kwara politics. Historically, the political elite class in the state has been overwhelmingly Muslim, and this has shaped both the narrative and machinery of power. Ilorin, the state capital, is a predominantly Muslim emirate with strong historical ties to northern Nigeria, particularly the Sokoto Caliphate.

This link has deeply influenced political alliances, religious sentiment, and voter behaviour. The emirate system, which remains culturally and politically influential, continues to support Muslim political leaders, often under the guise of regional or traditional consensus.

This system, though not codified into law, exerts significant soft power. Additionally, Muslims tend to have higher political participation rates in the state. From the ward level to gubernatorial contests, they are often better organised and strategically aligned across parties.

Muslim politicians also benefit from control of religious networks, such as mosques and Islamic schools, which serve as platforms for voter mobilization.

Another factor is political zoning. Although Kwara’s population is religiously diverse, most political parties – especially the ruling APC and the opposition PDP – have zoned their gubernatorial tickets either to Kwara Central or Kwara North, areas with dominant Muslim populations. This has limited opportunities for Christian candidates, who are more concentrated in parts of Kwara South and in pockets of Kwara North.

Critics within the Christian community viewed this as a deliberate sidelining of their demographic, exacerbating the agitation.

Meanwhile, the agitation for a Christian governor in 2027, if not well managed, could intensify sectarian sentiments in Kwara politics, a state that has long prided itself on religious harmony. Kwara has historically been spared the kind of violent religious clashes witnessed in other parts of northern Nigeria.

However, political marginalisation can breed resentment. Some political observers fear that continued exclusion could radicalize young Christians or push them further away from mainstream politics. It may also increase voter apathy, especially in areas like Offa, Omu-Aran, and Oke-Ero, where Christians are in the majority.

Comrade AbdulRahoof Bello, a chieftain of the APC in Kwara, called on Christians to take inspiration from figures like the late Chief Sunday Olawoyin, a Christian and Offa-born progressive politician known for his courage and activism.

“I am a Muslim, but I believe in fairness. Competence should matter more than religion,” Bello said. “If a Christian candidate is the best, I will support him.”

Similarly, Chief Iyiola Oyedepo, former chairman of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in Kwara, urged Christians to embrace pragmatic politics.

“We’ve lived under the deception of religious divisions for too long. Hunger and poverty don’t know religion,” he said. “Christian candidates must strategise and organise effectively. Politics is not for the passive.”

Reverend Cornelius Fawenu, who served as Special Adviser on Religious Affairs (Christian) under ex-Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed, emphasised early preparation, internal unity, and interfaith collaboration.

“Christians must stop preparing six months before elections,” he warned. “By then, Muslim-dominated parties would have already settled on their candidates. We must begin now, not in panic mode.”

Fawenu emphasised that “Christian votes alone won’t win the election, just as Muslim votes alone won’t.” Collaboration with moderate Muslim voters, civic organizations, and political groups is crucial.

Pastor John Adefabi of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), Kwara Province Four, urged reciprocity. “Christians have supported others in the past. It’s time for others to support us,” he said. But he cautioned against identity politics, urging Christians to field a candidate with broad, cross-religious appeal.

Pastor Ademola Popoola of the Cherubim and Seraphim Movement also encouraged Christians to stop viewing politics as dirty. “We must show leadership, not only in the pulpit but in governance,” he said.

Efforts to elect Christian governors in Kwara have consistently fallen short. In 2003 and 2007, Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, with the slogan “Standby Ni Gbogbo Igba”, made spirited attempts but was defeated. Theophilus Bamigboye, a retired military officer and former Administrator of Osun State, also failed to gain traction. Late Gbenga Omotosho, popularly known as “Omo To Sure,” ran an enthusiastic campaign but never broke into the mainstream.

Analysts believe these failures were partly due to poor political structure, lack of early preparation, and limited cross-regional alliances. In the current political climate, Christian aspirants mentioned in informal party discussions include former House Speaker Benjamin Yissa Ezekiel from Kwara North, Reverend Fawenu, and engineer Sunday Babalola, both from Kwara South. Kwara Central remains less likely to field a Christian candidate due to its Muslim dominance and political leanings.

Pastor John Damola of the Baptist Convention in Ilorin offered a philosophical take: “It may appear insignificant today, but like a matchstick can set a hut ablaze, sustained agitation can ignite meaningful change. We must keep the hope alive.”

If the agitation is to yield tangible results in 2027, Christian leaders and politicians must do more than call press conferences or issue statements. They must build political coalitions, engage youth, and begin conversations with existing power brokers across the faith divide.

The agitation must also address internal weaknesses. The Christian community in Kwara is fractured along denominational lines—Catholics, Anglicans, Pentecostals, and Aladuras (White garments) rarely work in unison on political matters. Without unifying under a credible, broadly acceptable candidate with a clear development agenda, the agitation may once again fizzle out.

Furthermore, Christians must invest in the political process—not just voting but also joining parties, vying for leadership positions, and sponsoring credible candidates from the ward to the national levels.

Above all, the call for a Christian governor in Kwara must not be reduced to a zero-sum religious battle. Instead, it should be framed as a democratic demand for equity, representation, and inclusion.

With 2027 around the corner, the Christian community in Kwara has a narrow window to prove that its call for leadership is not merely emotional, but strategic—and above all, viable.