Sir Keir Starmer's first 12 months in government have been marked by significant challenges, including a dramatic policy U-turn and public displays of distress from his own chancellor. While the Prime Minister had hoped to highlight Labour's achievements and his ambitious 10-year plan for the NHS, recent events have cast a shadow over his early tenure, leading commentators to question if his start in office has been shattered and if better use of Angela Rayner could ease relations with his own MPs.

The journey to Downing Street on July 5, 2024, was a moment of historic triumph for Keir Starmer, marking Labour's return to power after 14 years. He secured the largest majority in a quarter of a century, presenting a massive opportunity to become a truly consequential Prime Minister. However, this victory was also characterized as a 'loveless landslide,' achieved with a lower vote share than previous Labour landslide victories and built on shaky foundations: widespread public mistrust in politicians, dissatisfaction with public services, squeezed living standards, and fragile public finances. Unlike Tony Blair's era of a 'new dawn,' Starmer's government inherited what has been described as 'scorched earth.'

Throughout his first year, Starmer has demonstrated a relentless work ethic, traveling extensively across the UK and internationally to locations such as New York, Washington, Germany, Brazil, Samoa, Canada, Ukraine, the Netherlands, and Brussels. He is noted for being almost entirely unflappable, rarely expressing emotion, except for rare instances when questioned personally or when a colleague was attacked. However, despite his dedication, he has been heavily buffeted by unforeseen external events. The arrival of Donald Trump into the White House, coupled with a series of international crises like the Iran-Israel conflict and critical NATO and G7 summits, consumed much of his attention and bandwidth, diverting focus from pressing domestic issues.

This intense international engagement partially explains, though does not excuse, the significant domestic crisis that emerged: the welfare reform rebellion. Downing Street's misjudgment and refusal to heed early warnings from whips and even the Work and Pensions Secretary, Liz Kendall, allowed the situation to escalate. Despite 120 MPs signing a letter of complaint, Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves were described as 'absolutist,' underestimating the strength of the opposition within their own parliamentary party. The eventual climbdown, forcing the abandonment of flagship welfare reforms or facing defeat in the Commons, was a humiliating blow to the Prime Minister's authority, especially within the first year of a government with such a large majority. This decision has severe financial repercussions, compelling Rachel Reeves to find an additional £5 billion, likely through difficult choices between tax rises and spending cuts, while navigating increased pressure from spending-hungry Labour MPs. Her fiscal rules, while unpopular with some MPs, are seen by markets as the last line of defense against excessive spending.

Looking ahead to the second year, the tone has been set for a more challenging relationship with the parliamentary party, which, having successfully forced a reversal on welfare cuts, may feel empowered to apply pressure again. The financial fallout from the welfare decision also necessitates another definitive budget for the Chancellor, who now faces a multi-billion-pound black hole. Critics argue that Starmer misjudged the tone when marking his first anniversary; instead of directly addressing the welfare crisis, he attempted to pivot to a long-planned launch of his 10-year NHS plan, a move that inevitably was overshadowed by the self-inflicted shambles and the Chancellor's public distress. His reluctance to explain the welfare missteps when questioned highlights a perceived failure to effectively communicate his government's story.

While Starmer's team attributes some of the challenges to prevailing national pessimism and the inherent difficulties of governing amidst multiple crises, there's an acknowledgement that the government has lacked clear direction. The Prime Minister's stated mission is to restore the social contract and empower working people, evidenced by planned capital investment, an industrial strategy, and a strategic defense review. However, he himself admits that his government hasn't always told its story effectively. As he enters his second year, the task has become significantly harder. He has 'spilled so much blood over welfare for so little gain,' necessitating a reset of operations to better manage the party and rebuild support. Ultimately, Starmer's challenge is not just to tell, but to sell his government's vision and actions to the public over the remaining four years of his term, transforming legislative achievements into tangible belief in national renewal.