July 3, 2025 Hurricane Season Thursday Evening Update
. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 2 named storm, 0 hurricanes, and 0 majors.
Texas and Florida with heavy showers and storms continuing into the evening. Monsoon moisture across the Southwest and Rockies will decrease into Friday as the main moisture feed moves into the norther Plains.
Texas noticeably cooler with the rain and clouds only in the 70s, along with Florida peninsula. Amazing. 60s in New England. Comfortable except for around Phoenix and maybe South Dakota into the 90s.
Overall, the Lower 48 is with the most warmth still in the northern Plains and Midwest. Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico are the coolest states compared to normal (green/blue)
90s for 4th of July in Minneapolis to Chicago and Detroit … Ohio River Valley but NOT Washington D.C. or NYC or Boston — instead 80s.
Great day for the pool or the beach — maybe a dip in warm-enough Lake Michigan on Friday.
Florida will have the most impactful — wet/stormy weather on Friday but the eastern U.S. is mainly dry.
Northeast and Great Lakes look mostly clear as well as Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Texas looks mostly fair + Phoenix, and of course, all of California.
Temperatures will cool into the upper-70s and lower 80s by late evening.
Monsoon moisture dies down across Texas on Friday as the focus of the unsettled weather shifts north out of the Southwest into the northern Rockies and Plains.
Watching “tropical system” off the U.S. Southeast Coast with stalled frontal boundary but the moisture/rainfall looks lopsided well offshore through early Saturday.
Widespread scattered showers and storms … but not looking like a washout during the day — instead dependent upon convective/daily heating + pop-up.
with probably enough of a circulation to be considered a tropical depression or a storm (Chantal).
The asymmetric system will then be dragged NNE by an approaching trough/front and be taken off the Northeast coast to perhaps enhance rainfall and winds from Mid-Atlantic to New England.
The tropical system will be lopsided under effects of wind shear and its rapid movement NNE, so not a typical looking tropical storm. That will be helpful in limiting the intensification over the otherwise very warm Gulf Stream waters off the East Coast.
Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what’s coming. I’ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it’s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.
60% chance of development — next 7-days from NHC — focusing on Sat/Sun
Significant circulation around rather weak low pressure (1010 mb) with heavy rain in the NE quadrant. Not going to be pretty, but still windy and wet along the coast!
