As the Indian stock market prepares for the week of April 7-11, 2025, investors are set to navigate a mix of domestic and global triggers that could shape market direction. Following a turbulent start to the financial year, with the Nifty 50 declining 2.6% last week due to global trade concerns, attention is turning to pivotal events like the RBI’s monetary policy decision and the Q4 earnings kickoff. Here’s a roundup of the key cues to watch.

1. RBI Monetary Policy Decision (April 7-9)

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled from April 7 to 9, with the outcome due on April 9, will be a focal point. Investors are eager to see if the RBI opts for a rate cut to boost growth or maintains its stance to tackle inflation. The decision will likely sway interest rate-sensitive sectors like banking, real estate, and automobiles. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research—Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal, said, “The RBI’s policy will set the tone for liquidity and growth expectations amid global uncertainties.”

2. Q4 Earnings Season Kicks Off with TCS (April 10)

The quarterly earnings season begins this week, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) announcing its Q4 FY25 results on April 10. As a bellwether for the IT sector, which has been hit by global trade tensions and weaker U.S. demand, TCS’s performance could lift or dampen sentiment in the Nifty IT index, down over 4% last week. The company will also consider its final FY25 dividend, adding intrigue for investors.

3. April 10: Market Holiday for Ram Navami

Trading on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) will be suspended on April 10 due to Ram Navami, a public holiday. This closure will shorten the trading week, potentially amplifying volatility as investors adjust positions around the holiday. The market’s reaction to TCS’s earnings and other developments may spill over to April 11, intensifying focus on that day’s session.

4. Macroeconomic Data Releases (April 11)

India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for February 2025 and Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation for March 2025 are due on April 11. These releases will offer insights into industrial growth and inflation trends, respectively. While a delay to April 14 or 15 is possible due to the Ambedkar Jayanti holiday, an early release could influence market sentiment, especially post the RBI’s policy stance.

5. Global Cues: Trump’s Tariff Developments

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies remain a global concern after triggering a $5.4 trillion sell-off on Wall Street earlier this month. India, potentially facing an extended deadline to tweak its trade policies, is bracing for updates that could affect export-heavy sectors like metals, pharmaceuticals, and IT. The Indian rupee, however, strengthened to 85.23 against the dollar on April 4, buoyed by robust fundamentals.

6. Corporate Actions and Market Volatility

Shares of CRISIL and other firms will trade ex-dividend from April 7, potentially driving stock-specific action. The Nifty 50’s technical support lies at 22,600-22,800, with a breach possibly sparking further selling. Global data, including U.S. inflation figures on April 10 and FOMC minutes on April 9, will also guide FII flows, which saw a ₹10,355 crore outflow from Indian equities in early April, per NSDL data.

7. Sector-Specific Trends

Market Outlook

With a holiday-shortened week and a packed event calendar, volatility is expected to dominate. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, remarked, “The Nifty’s support at 23,100-23,150 will be key. Investors should adopt a stock-specific strategy in this uncertain environment.”