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India's aviation boom is flying on fumes - The Economic Times

Published 16 hours ago9 minute read
India’s aviation boom is flying on fumes
ET Online
Flight 171 in Ahmedabad on June 12, 2025, which claimed 241 lives and left only one survivor on board, has brought renewed scrutiny on India's civil aviation sector. The crash, however, killed 265 including 5 doctors at the BJ Medical College's hostel and other who are yet to be identified. The Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, registered VT-ANB and bound for London Gatwick, crashed just minutes after takeoff from Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport.This is the world’s first fatal hull loss for Boeing 787 and the deadliest civil aviation disaster in India this decade.

The catastrophe is the latest in a long string of turbulence hitting Indian skies, where grounded planes, exhausted pilots, faulty engines, and strained infrastructure have become distressingly routine.

One of the most pressing challenges haunting Indian carriers is the persistent failure of Pratt & Whitney (P&W) geared turbofan engines. This issue, compounded by global supply chain disruptions, has led to widespread grounding of aircraft, severely impacting operational capacity.

A report by credit rating agency ICRA outlined the scale of the problem: "Supply-chain challenges and engine failure issues impact industry capacity; the industry has been facing supply-chain challenges and issues of engine failures for the Pratt and Whitney (P&W) engines supplied to various airlines."

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These problems triggered the demise of Go Airlines (India) Ltd, better known as Go First, which was ordered into liquidation by the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) in January 2025 after being forced to ground nearly half its fleet in FY24 due to engine faults. Go First pursued compensation through litigation in US courts.IndiGo, India’s largest airline by market share, has also suffered. As of January 30, 2025, around 60 to 70 of its aircraft were grounded, largely due to “powder metal contamination” in P&W’s GTF engines, a defect confirmed by NITI Aayog.

As per ICRA, by March 2025, about 133 aircraft, roughly 16% of India’s total commercial fleet, were grounded, a modest improvement from 154 grounded aircraft in September 2023, but still a major blow to airline capacity and profitability.

To keep planes flying, carriers have increasingly resorted to wet-leasing older aircraft at short notice. These planes come with higher lease rentals and poorer fuel efficiency, hurting margins even as ticket prices remain high. Airlines have tried to offset these costs through strong yields, full flights, and partial compensation from engine manufacturers, according to ICRA.

IndiGo has responded by gradually shifting towards a CFM International-powered fleet. "IndiGo's reliance on Pratt & Whitney engines continues to decline amid shift to CFM-powered fleet," ET reported.

This shift comes after a difficult stretch since the airline first inducted the A320neo in March 2016. The aircraft were plagued by mid-air shutdowns and emergency landings due to early engine issues, worsened by the more recent powder metal defect.

As of April 2025, P&W-powered aircraft made up less than 30% of IndiGo’s fleet and just 33.6% of its A320-family aircraft. The airline is on track to return nearly 80 grounded planes to service in FY26, double the usual annual fleet addition.

Gaurav Negi, IndiGo’s CFO, stated during the March 2025 earnings call that about 40 aircraft were still grounded and expected to return by early 2026. Some will be re-inducted, while others will go back to lessors. “Along with the new addition, it will be a good boost to capacity,” ET quoted him as saying. IndiGo has already added 14 new aircraft and returned 11 to lessors in 2025 alone, the report said.

As of June 1, Pieter Elbers, the CEO of IndiGo, confirmed that the airline has a pending order for 916 aircraft, including a recent upsizing of its Airbus A350 order to 60 aircraft.

While the engine supplier for its 500-aircraft order from the 2023 Paris Air Show remains unannounced, industry watchers expect the airline to continue its tilt toward CFM.

Meanwhile, IndiGo now operates 194 A320neo and 140 A321neo aircraft. The A321neo, with 232 seats, offers 24.73% more capacity than the A320neo, helping IndiGo achieve better economies of scale.

While aircraft availability remains a concern, a worsening shortage of skilled professionals, particularly pilots, has emerged as another serious constraint.

Akasa Air’s meteoric rise almost got stuck in a major air pocket in 2023 when 43 of its pilots resigned without serving mandatory notice periods in August that year, causing widespread flight cancellations. Its domestic market share dipped from 5.2% in July to 4.2% in August 2023.

The airline took legal action in Mumbai and appealed to the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) to enforce Civil Aviation Requirements (CAR) 2017, which mandate 12-month and 6-month notice periods for captains and first officers, respectively.

Akasa also accused Air India Express of poaching its Boeing 737 Max pilots, a charge the Tata-owned airline denied, stating that all recruits paid the necessary bond amounts. "Less than 10% of Air India’s fresh hires are from Akasa,” the airline said.

The pilot shortage forced Akasa to rationalise its routes, cancel up to 632 flights in August 2023, and an additional 24 flights per day in September. To curb attrition, it hiked pilot pay by up to 60% starting October 2023, raising captains’ starting salaries to Rs 4.5 lakh per month.

CEO Vinay Dube acknowledged the disruption in an internal memo: “When a small set of pilots abandoned their duties and left without serving their mandatory contractual notice period, it forced a disruption of flights… necessitating last-minute cancellations.”

By May 2025, Akasa said it had stabilised its crew strength, paused new pilot recruitment, and brought attrition down to under 1% annually. The airline had placed a fresh “three-digit” aircraft order and launched international operations in December 2023.

The Air India crash has also rekindled memories of earlier tragedies, including the 2010 Air India Express Flight 812 crash in Mangalore that killed 158 of 166 onboard after overshooting a tabletop runway. The captain, reportedly asleep during descent, ignored co-pilot warnings.

More recently, a section of the roof at Delhi Airport’s Terminal 1 collapsed on June 28, 2024, killing one and injuring six. GMR Group, which operates the terminal, blamed “extreme weather,” but critics cited weak oversight and cost-cutting in construction as probable factors. Delhi Airport handles over 20% of the country’s air traffic and is a flagship project in India’s push to build 220 airports by 2025.

“The collapse exposed shoddy construction and maintenance... Public outrage on X highlighted perceived negligence by private operators and regulators,” said one industry observer.

The collapse of Kingfisher Airlines in 2012 remains a cautionary tale. Launched in 2005 by liquor baron Vijay Mallya, the airline once boasted a 27% market share. But its lavish service model was unsuited to India’s price-sensitive market.

Kingfisher racked up over Rs 9,000 crore in debt from 17 banks, including SBI and IDBI, and failed to pay salaries or meet debt obligations. Its flying licence was revoked in October 2012.

Mallya has since contested the size of the debt. In a recent interview, he said, “I am as perplexed as you are because the banks have never submitted a statement to me,” and claimed the actual loan was closer to Rs 6,203 crore. He also said that the government had recovered Rs 14,100 crore from him, exceeding the original claims.

If there’s one cautionary tale that encapsulates the fragility of Indian aviation, it’s the fall of Jet Airways, once the country’s crown jewel.

Founded in 1993, Jet was India’s largest full-service carrier until it collapsed in April 2019 under the weight of debt, competition, and a failed low-cost strategy. At its peak, Jet commanded a 22.6% domestic market share. But the rise of low-cost carriers (LCCs) like IndiGo and SpiceJet disrupted the market with aggressive fares. Jet’s own attempt at countering this threat by acquiring Air Sahara and launching JetLite backfired, only bloating its debt.

By the time of its shutdown, Jet had racked up Rs 15,000 crore in debt. It had missed payments to lessors, grounded aircraft, and failed to pay staff, triggering mass protests. Even Etihad’s investment and a bailout plan led by SBI couldn’t salvage the situation. The shutdown, India’s largest aviation layoff, left over 22,000 employees in limbo.

Jet’s fall serves as a stark reminder: full-service carriers without robust financial buffers or adaptive models simply cannot survive in India’s price-sensitive, high-volume environment.

Air India itself was a chronic loss-maker under government control, bleeding over Rs 70,000 crore ($9.5 billion) in cumulative losses by 2021. In January 2022, the Tata Group took the controls, acquiring the airline through its subsidiary Talace Pvt. Ltd. for Rs 18,000 crore. This included an upfront payment of Rs 2,700 crore and the assumption of Rs 15,300 crore in debt. The rest, over Rs 61,000 crore, was parked in a government-run SPV.

Privatisation was hailed as a bold reset. And to its credit, progress has been made. Air India has added 104 aircraft to its fleet since the takeover, revived long-grounded planes, and placed a historic order for 470 new jets in 2023. A $400 million retrofit plan is underway, and training academies for pilots and crew have been launched to match the growth tempo. On average, the airline expects one new aircraft delivery every six days in 2025.

In May 2024, Air India Express saw over 100 cabin crew report sick in protest against changes to pay structures, grounding over 300 flights and costing the airline Rs 100 crore. The DGCA stepped in with a show-cause notice, while the airline sacked, and later reinstated, 25 crew members.

Just weeks before, Vistara, the Tata Group's joint venture with Singapore Airlines (now merged with Air India), faced a week-long meltdown, cancelling over 50 flights a day due to a pilot shortage. The trigger? New contracts slashing guaranteed flying hours, which pilots protested as salary cuts. The DGCA again intervened, demanding daily cancellation reports and a crew roster review.

These twin labour crises expose a deeper issue: managing workforce expectations in a rapidly consolidating but historically fragmented aviation ecosystem. The Tata Group's plan was to integrate its four airline brands – Air India, Vistara, Air India Express, and AIX Connect (formerly AirAsia India) – into two main brands: Air India (full-service) and Air India Express (low-cost).

India is poised to become the world’s third-largest aviation market by 2026, with a projected 1.3 billion passenger trips by 2040, according to Airports Council International (ACI). But scale without stability could be -- and is usually -- a dangerous proposition.

The ecosystem remains under strain: insufficient maintenance capacity, skilled worker shortages, regulatory bottlenecks, and weak consumer protections plague the industry.

For passengers, the pain is already visible. Fewer aircraft mean more cancellations, higher fares, and longer delays. For airlines, the road ahead will require more than capital: it will need realism. Operational discipline, a safety-first culture, financial prudence, and labour empathy must become the new cockpit instruments.

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