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Hornets have impossible Ace Bailey decision if he is still available at 4th

Published 2 days ago6 minute read

Holding the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft after a bit of bad luck in the lottery, the Charlotte Hornets have a lot to consider as they weigh the options of who to take with their selection. There are plenty of choices, including VJ Edgecombe, who looks like the ideal fit alongside the current Hornets core.

The possible problem for the organization is that Edgecombe might not be available anymore at No. 4. In that scenario, Tre Johnson might be a great alternative, as he is a potential solution to one of Charlotte's woes.

There is also a third name in the conversation, someone whom the Hornets may regret if they decide to pass on him — Ace Bailey.

The forward out of Rutgers University came out of the draft combine measuring 6-7 with a 7-0 wingspan. His stock rose in his lone collegiate season after averaging 17.3 points and  7.2 rebounds per game. He and his top-three projected teammate, Dylan Harper, led an underwhelming Rutgers team to a 15-17 record. While that may be unsatisfactory, the overall coaching and roster construction were less than lackluster. Notably, Bailey was the engine of the offense and did everything in his power to keep the team afloat.

Bailey was one of the toughest shot-makers in all of college basketball. With the Rutgers roster being weak, he was often met with double teams or by defenders who knew he was the guy who would take the shot. It's worth noting that the 18-year-old was often unfazed by the defensive schemes he had to face. He confidently rose up and made some of the most heavily contested shots you’ve ever seen.

Also, his ability to be a three-level scorer got some boost from his size and length, allowing him to shoot over defenders from beyond the arc and in the midrange. Ace additionally showed an ability to attack the paint and wasn’t afraid to try and catch a body on a dunk attempt, even with a larger defender inside. He can be one of the best offensive prospects to come out of the draft in recent memory.

Bailey is mostly known as an offensive prospect, but with a seven-foot wingspan and high-level athleticism, he could project as a plus defender. He averaged just above a block and a steal in his time at Rutgers, with his highlight tape including a lot of chase-down rejections and blocks on 3-point attempts.

His impact on the defensive side of the ball could even show improvement at the next level because he won’t have to carry as much of an offensive load. There is a world where Ace plays more of an off-ball role and can lock in defensively.

Tracy McGrady, Paul George, and even Kevin Durant sound like awesome dudes to add to your basketball team. Those are just a few of the NBA legends Bailey has been compared to. If you are a forward with above-average wingspan who can make tough shots in clutch games, you certainly deserve the comps.

Ace was listed at 6-10 for his season at Rutgers, which garnered him more Durant comparisons with his length, build, and size. The two-time champion had an absolutely insane college career, averaging 25.8 points per game on 41 percent shooting from 3-point land. There are very few people who will ever meet that tier at the collegiate level, and Bailey wasn't one of them. However, the look and feel of their games are quite similar.

They both are snipers, especially from the midrange. With his size coming in more at 6-8 to 6-9 with shoes on, a George or McGrady comp fits a little more appropriately.

George averaged similar stats to Bailey during his final year at Fresno State University, and they both showed the ability to take and make tough shots. George was a better ball handler than Ace, but the latter shot more efficiently from the field.  Both also didn’t show fear when attacking the basket for a poster dunk.

As for McGrady, he came straight out of high school, robbing us of the capability to weigh up his and Bailey's college stats. However, the reasons KD and PG are good comps are the same as those for T-Mac. If Ace can even have display shades of these guys at the next level, he could be a serious problem.

Fit is one of the big concerns with Bailey coming to Buzz City. Another one of his comparisons I didn’t mention was Charlotte’s very own Brandon Miller. They do a lot of similar things with their game, and adding someone who could take the kinds of touches Miller needs might end up hurting both players' development.

The Hornets could look past that, though, because that archetype of a player is becoming more and more useful in the NBA. Still, there is a real world where both young men struggle to thrive if they are forced to play with each other.

Every NBA prospect has some kind of drawback, but Bailey is someone who might have a few more than the other prospects at No. 4. Yes, he is an elite shot-maker, but the tough shots he is known to make have so far come against college hoopers. Those shots become exponentially harder in the NBA.

There is usually hope that as prospects are added to rosters with other guys around them, they are required to take fewer and fewer of those difficult shots. However, Bailey doesn’t seem to be someone who plans on taking fewer of them.

During a draft combine interview, he was asked what gives him the confidence to take tough shots, and he said, “Workouts. The shots I do in workouts are the shots I do in a game. ... What might be a bad shot for you, you don’t work on it, I work on it.” The unwavering confidence can be seen as a good thing. He sounds like he is comfortable making tough shots, but those kinds of attempts in college are significantly harder in the NBA.

As for his defense, Bailey has become known mostly for highlight plays. He has the physical tools to be a good defender, but usually shows a lack of effort and the desire to compete on that end of the floor. That and his possibly overconfident attitude could turn off some folks among the Hornets coaching staff.

Interestingly, Bailey believes he is destined to be a star, comparing himself to Durant and George. While self-confidence can be seen as a positive trait, he is still someone who can be a hit-or-miss prospect with a high ceiling and low floor. Such a big personality with high odds of becoming a bust could be a huge cause for concern for Charlotte.

I am someone who hopes NBA prospects will turn out to be their best selves. While I like to believe that the best case is going to happen for every player, Bailey is definitely concerning. I think he could be one of the best scorers in the NBA, but I could also see him fizzling out and being a locker room cancer. He could be Durant or Michael Beasley.

If he is there at pick No. 4 and so is either Johnson or Edgecombe, I need the coaching staff and front office to be 1000 percent sold on Bailey if they decide to submit his name. Even then, I still wouldn't be completely happy with the selection.

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