With the earnings season coming to a close, India markets this week are expected to shift all their focus to global events such as trade war fears triggered by Donald Trump, an appreciating dollar, crude oil prices, US tariff speculations, and outflows by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), according to analysts.

In the US, the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might also be under the scanner this week.

"With the earnings season behind us, market focus will shift to trends in FII flows and currency movements for further cues," said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. 

Us tariff speculation and the impact of such moves on global trade would also be a key factor to watch out for, added Mishra.

Meanwhile, Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research (Wealth Management) at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, opined on similar lines. "With the conclusion of the Q3 earnings season, now focus will be on global developments amid a turbulent market environment on account of Donald Trump's trade policies," said Khemka.

According to Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, the USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 86.60 to 87.10, stating FII outflows to possibly put pressure on the rupee. Last Friday, the Indian currency recovered by 21 paise to settle at 86.71 vs the US dollar. On the same day, FIIs offloaded a net ₹4,294.69 crore worth of equities, as per data from the exchanges.

As key domestic indicators diminish following the end of earnings season or the absence of any major financial announcements in India in the coming week, the market tone is expected to be set mostly by global developments.

In a week that saw the benchmark indices fall consecutively, the BSE Sensex closed this Friday (Feb 14) at 75,939.21, down 2.47 per cent from last week's close (Feb 7). The NSE Nifty 50 also slid 2.68 per cent to close at 22,929.25 on Friday. Considering the past eight trading days, both indices slumped by around 3.4 per cent, as the lacklustre quarterly earnings season did not help matters.

The combined market cap of eight of the top ten most valued domestic companies dipped by a staggering ₹2 lakh crore last week. Market leader Reliance Industries took most of the brunt, with its mcap dipping by ₹67,526.54 crore to ₹16,46,822.12 crore. 

Despite the earnings season coming to an end, the markets are expected to remain cautious. "Volatility is expected to stay elevated until there is clarity on tariffs and a recovery in corporate earnings," stated Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.