Aaron Nola, a pitcher for the Phillies, is experiencing challenges early in the 2025 season, raising concerns about his performance. Despite his history with the team, his declining velocity and shaky command have become significant issues. In his first five starts, Nola has a 0-5 record with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.140 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts over 30 innings.

A key concern is the drop in Nola's fastball velocity, now averaging around 90 mph, which is the lowest it has been at this point in his career. Although Nola attributes this to his early-season routine, opposing hitters have been capitalizing on his mistakes. His inability to consistently get ahead in counts is also problematic. His first-pitch strike rate has fallen to 56.3%, leading to deeper counts, more walks, and fewer strikeout opportunities. His walk rate has increased to 8.7%, surpassing his career average of 6.4%.

ESPN's Dave Schoenfield noted that Nola has a history of inconsistency, with alternating stellar and subpar seasons. However, his struggles in 2025 appear to be more related to mechanical and situational factors.

Despite these issues, Nola's curveball remains effective, particularly in two-strike counts. His PutAway rate with this pitch has increased to 26.5%, and he's achieving a 51% missed-swing rate, both improvements from last season. He's also inducing softer contact on his sinker, indicating good location when ahead in the count. The Phillies need Nola to regain his form as a veteran who controls counts, commands the strike zone, and minimizes damage.

With Zach Wheeler leading the rotation, Nola's role as the No. 2 pitcher is vital for the Phillies' postseason aspirations. While Nola's velocity typically increases mid-season, the Phillies cannot afford to wait too long for this improvement. If his performance doesn't improve soon, it could negatively impact the team's season.