To answer this question honestly, we must peel back the glossy surface of this alliance and examine the characters behind it. Unfortunately, what we find is not a picture of hope, but of history repeating itself.

Many of the individuals now standing at the forefront of this coalition for change are the very same people who ruined Nigeria. These are not newcomers to politics. They are seasoned actors with decades of experience in manipulating the system, looting the treasury, and protecting the status quo.

Some served as governors who left their states with unpaid salaries, collapsed infrastructure, and staggering debt. Others were former ministers, complicit in systemic corruption, watching billions of Naira disappear under their watch. There are ex-legislators who spent more time fighting for inflated allowances than they ever did pushing for reforms. And there are former vice presidents, now rebranding themselves as elder statesmen, despite presiding over eras of missed opportunities, ethnic violence, and institutional decay.

These men, and they are mostly men—have had their turn. Not once, but multiple times. They’ve held every major office: local, state, and federal. They’ve changed party affiliations with no ideological consistency, moving from PDP to APC and now into new coalitions like political nomads driven not by conviction, but by ambition.

So we must ask: What exactly is new about this coalition? The colors may have changed, the slogans may be different, but the actors are the same and so is the script.

The history of political coalitions in Nigeria is a checkered one. In 2015, Nigerians placed their hopes in a coalition that promised to fight corruption, improve security, and revive the economy. We were told we were entering a new era. But what followed was years of stagnation, economic hardship and growing insecurity. The coalition fractured, and the nation paid the price.

And yet, many of the key players from that coalition are now back again, playing a new role in a new alliance. They claim they’ve learned from the past. But what have they done to earn back our trust? Have they apologized to the people? Have they returned the stolen funds? Have they mentored or opened the way for new leaders, or are they still trying to dominate the political space with their outdated thinking?

In truth, they have not repented, they’ve only rebranded.

This new coalition is not born out of shared vision, ideology, or commitment to national transformation. It is a coalition of survival, formed by political orphans and power brokers who have been pushed to the margins of relevance in their former parties.

What unites them is not a common vision for Nigeria, but a common enemy: the fear of political extinction. It’s no coincidence that many of them only rediscover their “love for the people” when elections are near or when they lose access to state resources.

They now use buzzwords like “youth inclusion,” “restructuring,” and “economic reform,” but where were these words when they had the power to act? When youth challenges rocked the nation, how many of them stood with the youth? When bandits and terrorists killed innocent Nigerians in the North and South, how many of them spoke up with courage? When oil theft, subsidy fraud, and rigged elections plagued us, how many of them took a stand?

We need leaders who have not been corrupted by the rot of old politics. Leaders with moral courage, not just political ambition. Leaders who are not building coalitions for power, but coalitions for purpose.

The Nigerian people must not forget. We must not allow ourselves to be blinded by speeches, headlines, or media manipulation. We’ve been here before. And unless we break this cycle of political amnesia, we will be here again.

This is not the time to be sentimental. It is time to be surgical in our scrutiny. Every face in this coalition must be examined. Every past decision must be remembered. The burden of proof lies on them, not us.

As citizens, our job is to demand accountability, truth, and transparency. We must reject political theatre and insist on genuine leadership. Nigeria has suffered enough to know that hope without memory is dangerous.

So, can we trust the new coalition?

Not if it is made up of the same architects of our decline.
Not if it is driven by convenience, not conscience.
Not if it continues to treat Nigerians as pawns in a game of power.

Nigeria deserves better. And we must demand it.

Ahmad, Executive Director of Youth Society for the Prevention of Infectious Diseases & Social Vices (YOSPIS), writes from Kano

Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of TheCable.