STORY: From the possibility of an oil supply shock to testimony from Fed boss Jerome Powell, these are the stories to watch in business and finance in the coming week.

:: Possible oil supply shock

:: June 15, 2025

The Israel-Iran war has investors bracing for a possible oil supply shock.

:: Tehran, Iran

Brent crude has topped $75 for the first time since January.

:: File

For now, there are no signs of disruption to output, but Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels a day and exports around half that, according to Reuters and LSEG calculations.

A shortfall in Iranian barrels, while jarring to markets, could be offset by other OPEC countries tapping spare capacity to fill that void.

:: NATO summit

A NATO summit officially kicks off in the Netherlands on Wednesday.

NATO boss Mark Rutte wants all allies to commit to U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed defense spending target of 5% of GDP.

To do that, NATO will interpret defense more broadly.

It would up the spending target on traditional defense to 3.5% and members would then need to spend at least 1.5% of GDP on military-releated infrastructure and protection against cyber attacks.

:: Powell testimony

Markets will look to Fed boss Jerome Powell when he testifies before Senate and House committees to elaborate on what his expectation for "meaningful" inflation means for the rate outlook.

Powell could also be asked how a further Middle East escalation impacts inflation.

Thursday's final read on first quarter GDP meanwhile should confirm that the economy shrank.

:: Economic indicators

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs initially led to order front-loading, supporting global business activity, but that is fading fast with global recession creeping back up.

With little forward guidance from companies, economic indicators are more vital than ever for markets, and a raft of them are due in the days to come.

Monday brings the first release of June business activity for a host of economies including the euro area, Britain and the United States.