Superman, the first movie under the new DC Studios headed by James Gunn and Peter Safran, arrived on tracking with outlook on NRG. However, various distribution sources believe the real range for the Gunn-directed movie is more in the vicinity.

Because he’s a brand name, Superman pops on unaided awareness (that’s the category where those moviegoers polled automatically cite a movie they want to see, without being prodded by a pollster). With a 30 in unaided awareness, it’s higher than Top Gun: Maverick ($126.7M). But is that the right comp?

Better to look at first choice, the definitely must-see category for those willing to get off their couch.

In first choice, Superman is below such post Covid superhero movies as Thor: Love & Thunder ($144.1M opening), The Batman ($134M opening), and Gunn’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($118.4M).

Here’s the rub: first choice for Captain America: Brave New World is higher than Superman‘s by 71% at the same point in time. That movie opened at $88.8M. In addition, Superman‘s first choice is 64% behind that of Matt Reeves’ The Batman.

We already told you that Superman is the best advance ticket seller YTD in its first 24 hours, the pic’s Amazon Prime Early Access paid screenings flying off Fandango’s portal. Those screenings are on Wednesday, July 8 (7PM local time), three days before the pic’s July 11 opening. Superman‘s presales outstripped that of Disney/Marvel Studios’ Fantastic Four: First Steps. 

Sources say that when it comes to Superman‘s opening weekend outlook, it boils down to reviews. Ok, why this film above all others like Deadpool & Wolverine in the post pandemic landscape? Because everyone is familiar with Superman, and they’ll make their decision to go based on strict word-of-mouth.

While these tentpole movies begin their advance drumroll months in advance with trailer drops (Superman dropped its first teaser just before Christmas), like all big event movies, the majority of Superman‘s P&A spend will be in the final days leading up to opening.

Superman through seven movies (not including Justice League, but definitely including Batman v. Superman) have minted $2.56 billion at the global box office. Batman v. Superman opened to $166M, an Easter holiday record, and legged out to $330.3M domestic, $874.3M worldwide. 2013’s reboot, Man of Steel, opened to $116.6M, and ended its U.S./Canada run at $291M, $670M WW. Both of those movies were directed by Zack Snyder.