Supply deficit, growing whale dominance on CEX exchanges and bullish options shift outweigh macro uncertainty. As long as BTC holds $108K, the base scenario is upward movement with targets at $112K.

The combination of falling consumer spending and tighter Fed signals on inflation creates short-term pressure on risk assets: stocks may remain under pressure due to weak GDP and expanding trade deficit, while the dollar will likely maintain support due to forecasts of prolonged monetary policy "tightness." Nevertheless, the record surge in durable goods orders and expectations of two Fed rate cuts later this year, along with escalating geopolitics, will push some capital into more speculative instruments, including bitcoin, which in such an environment may show high volatility, reacting to the balance between investor risk appetite and the search for a "safe haven."

Markets ended the week with gains: optimism about trade agreements and prospects for Fed rate cuts compensated for individual political risks.

Given the continuing uncertainty over Fed monetary policy and the revival of trade negotiations, bitcoin will likely continue to show increased volatility, reacting to every signal about potential easing or tightening of monetary policy. On one hand, expectations of two rate cuts by year-end and capital flight to alternative assets amid geopolitical risks will support BTC, on the other hand - strengthening stock indices amid optimism about trade agreements may pull some speculative funds back into stocks. As a result, we may see short-term corrections at the beginning of next week, followed by attempts to break new local highs, especially if Powell's speech confirms a more "benevolent" Fed mood.

Regulatory shift is gaining momentum: after the Ripple settlement and removal of Fed "reputational" requirements, clarity emerges for banks and issuers, while the MiCA license and Coinbase perpetual futures launch give a "green light" to new products.

States continued experiments with BTC reserves - Texas has already invested in bitcoin, Arizona is preparing its own confiscated asset fund, demonstrating growing interest in "treasury" use of cryptocurrencies at the government level.

In the corporate sector, diversification is happening: from Gemini stock tokenization and active purchases by Metaplanet and ProCap to World Liberty regional deals in the UAE. These steps confirm the preservation of the trend at institutional levels.

This week BTC bounced from the $98.2K low, then smoothly climbed to the $108.3K level. In recent days, narrow consolidation is observed in the $107K–$108K range with declining volumes - this is a sign of profit-taking and position accumulation before the next move.

This week, Bitcoin's 30-day momentum recovered from negative territory and consolidated at . After falling to –7.8%, we saw gradual smoothing of bearish pressure and momentum's return to the neutral mark.

$106,000

• $2,134,657,250,024

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• The 5.1% growth in capitalization confirms bullish sentiment.

1. +14.7% in transfer volumes while simultaneously reducing the number of active wallets (−6.1%) indicates consolidation of large participants and institutional demand.

2. hashrate growth (+2.8%) increases network security and stability.

3. price (+3.6%) and capitalization (+5.1%) update levels, supporting investor optimism.

4. outflow from exchanges (−1.3%) reduces supply for sale and creates a foundation for further growth.

Currently, the 30-day MA of the metric has gone into negative value, reflecting "Demand Generation" (blue zones on the chart). In its amplitude and character, this shift almost exactly repeats the market reaction after the Terra/LUNA collapse in May 2022 (first green circle) - when participants, frightened by the algorithmic stablecoin crash, bought Bitcoin. Before this, the only similar case throughout the entire bear cycle was the demand growth after the FTX collapse in November 2022 (lower green circle) - the moment when the sell-off phase ended and a turn toward a new bull wave began.

Therefore, the current dynamics of the metric are particularly important: if the inflow of stablecoins to exchanges continues at the level or exceeds what we observed after LUNA and FTX, this will be a strong signal for launching the next Bitcoin rally.

Previously, when Bitcoin was trading in the range, the 30-day SMA of new UTXOs confidently grew to outputs per day (green rectangle on the chart). This indicated an influx of fresh participants and high network activity. At the peak of the last rally, at a price of , there was a second spike in New UTXO – SMA reached , confirming sustained demand from new and existing addresses (second green rectangle).

Now, despite the price being around again, New UTXO SMA has fallen to - this is almost half the level during the first rise to $60–70K and more than a quarter below the peaks at $90–100K. Such divergence between price and network activity indicates a strong HODL mode, which is confirmed by the previous metric.

Before the finale of a limited but sustained network rise, it would be enough to see New UTXO growth to the level (plus ~23% from current). If there's a stronger bull rally, as happened in spring 2024 (plus ~54–75%), SMA should return to the outputs zone.

Over the last 15 days, the Exchange Flow Multiple value (30-day MA of BTC inflow to exchanges to 365-day MA) fell from marks close to 1.0× to current ~0.6×. In other words, on average 40% fewer coins are flowing to exchanges than was characteristic over the past year. This is a sustained decrease in short-term inflows over the past year and a half – similar minimums we saw only in April 2023. Extreme weakening of coin inflow traditionally signals exhaustion of active sellers. Historically, it was precisely after such Exchange Flow Multiple collapses that price reversals and transitions to new bull rallies were observed. Low BTC inflow creates a deficit of liquidity for sale and becomes the foundation for further price strengthening.

Against the backdrop of general weakness in exchange inflows (Exchange Flow Multiple) and New UTXO minimums, the share of large transactions to exchanges is growing back to historical maximums of ~96% (currently marked by the blue rectangle). This means that despite the absence of massive inflow from small holders, "whales" are still loading coins onto platforms - they concentrate almost the entire volume of incoming flow to CEX exchanges.

Similar spikes in large transaction dominance we saw in mid-2023 and January–March 2024, each time before strong price movements: first to $30–32K, then to $65–70K. High concentration of "whales" on exchanges with general liquidity deficit indicates preparation for distribution. Essentially, large players are currently preparing for the next phase of a bull rally.

At the intersection of macro factors and on-chain signals, a setup has formed. On one hand, the foundation for growth is strengthening: liquidity deficit is intensifying (Exchange Flow Multiple fell to ≈0.6х), exchange reserves continue to decline, and the negative difference between BTC and stablecoin inflows has historically preceded volatility. Meanwhile, large transaction dominance on CEX is approaching 96% - meaning whales, not the crowd, are forming the coin flow. Usually they "flood" volumes onto exchanges in advance to have the ability to distribute at higher prices, so breaking the $109K zone on increased volumes could quickly pull price to $112–115K, where peak call strikes of options are concentrated.

On the other hand, the macroeconomic picture doesn't yet give a clear signal. The fall in personal spending and unexpected Q1 GDP minus increase the risk of risk-asset correction, but accelerating core inflation keeps the Fed from quick action. The market is betting on two rate cuts by year-end; any "dovish" remark by Powell at the ECB forum or soft data block - especially on ISM and employment - will become a breakthrough catalyst. Conversely, a tough tone (amid expanding trade deficit) could provoke whale profit-taking and a pullback to $104K, and with increased put volume flow - to psychological $100K.

As a result, the coming week will likely pass under the sign of increased volatility within the $104K–$112K range. Watch for (1) stablecoin inflow dynamics: maintaining "Demand Generation" will confirm the market's readiness to absorb distribution volumes, (2) New UTXO growth above ~700K: this will signal fresh inflow of new players; (3) DXY index reaction - a weak dollar traditionally strengthens interest in BTC. While structural supply deficit and whale speculative appetite outweigh macro uncertainty, the base scenario remains testing the upper range boundary of $112K with favorable news.

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More details about the rating can be found at this link: https://adlerinsight.com/Adler_Insight_Rating.pdf

Good luck in the upcoming trading week!
AAJ

This material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, digital assets, or other financial instruments. The information presented in this report is considered reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any investment decisions are made by the investor independently, taking into account personal financial circumstances and, if necessary, after consultation with a qualified professional. The author and affiliated parties may hold positions in the assets mentioned in this report. The author and publisher accept no responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this information.

Risks:

High volatility may lead to sharp fluctuations in value, adversely affecting investors' portfolios. Significant price swings may reduce the attractiveness of BTC to institutional investors, especially in the derivatives segment (futures, options). Potential tightening of regulatory requirements by governments and central banks may restrict access to BTC markets and reduce liquidity. Issues with custodial services, centralized exchanges, and hacking incidents could undermine confidence in the asset and negatively impact liquidity.