Bitcoin’s retreat from its all-time high (ATH) of $108k has brought the price to $94,398, a decline of 11.1%. Despite this, the market exhibits robust demand and a healthy structure. Unrealized losses are primarily concentrated among short-term holders who purchased BTC within the last 155 days near peak prices. However, these losses remain less severe compared to historical corrections.
Glassnode’s metrics reveal Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio stands at 1.32, reflecting a 32% unrealized profit across the market. This indicates a positive sentiment, even amid a cooling phase. Historical trends suggest a cyclical decline in speculative intensity, with each market cycle seeing progressively lower MVRV highs—ranging from 8.07x in 2011 to 2.78x in 2024.
The MVRV Z-Score was adjusted to use a 1-year rolling window to better capture market dynamics. This refinement enhances the detection of mid-cycle and late-cycle peaks, aligning current price behavior with previous bull markets. Bitcoin’s spot price sits above the 1-year mean ($90.9k) but remains below the +2σ threshold of $112.6k, indicating a bullish phase.
Short-term holders’ cost basis averages $88.4k, with a high band of $125.5k and a low band of $68.5k. The market’s current position, 9.2% above the short-term holder cost basis, supports a bullish narrative, provided this level holds.
The volume of coins in unrealized loss fluctuates between 2.0 and 3.5 million, significantly lower than the 4 million coins seen during the 2024 correction. This marks a less distressed state, reinforced by institutional demand and spot ETFs. Relative Unrealized Loss, at 4.3%, mirrors the stable conditions of the 2016–17 bull market, avoiding the extreme stress levels of past cycles.
Bitcoin’s current correction reflects a maturing market with diminished volatility. The optimized 1-year MVRV Z-Score clarifies critical price levels, identifying $88.4k as a pivotal support. As long as Bitcoin holds above this threshold, the bullish market structure is expected to persist, even amid short-term pullbacks.
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