There are three individuals to watch in the unfolding efforts to replay the 2013 amalgamation of opposition that defeated the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its presidential ribbon bearer, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. And they are from the northern part of the country.

Two years before the next general election, a similar collaboration has just taken off, in what could be described as a repeat of the Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu playbook in political engineering for electoral triumph.

But, quite unlike the coming together of otherwise fringe opposition political parties that gave rise to the current ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which had Tinubu on the driving seat, the ongoing coalition efforts are not banking on political parties, but persons to steer the sail.

When the story of how this current effort succeeds or flounders, the following northern politicians should be on the front row: Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, Senator David Alechenu Mark and Mallam Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai. Of these three, two represent the two sides of the coalition being put together to effect a change in the political leadership structure of the country under President Tinubu.

Coming from the extreme flanks of the country’s geography – North East and North West – both Atiku and el-Rufai came up with different messages and roles. While Atiku sounded the alarm after the final determination of the 2023 polls that Nigerian politicians needed to come together to checkmate the shortcomings or excesses of the incumbent, el-Rufai came up with a zoning challenge.

The former Kaduna State governor and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) recalled how in 2022 the 19 state governors resolved that power should shift to the South. He pointed out that that decision was taken in the interest of fairness and equity, stressing that the principle of power rotation between North and South was necessary for the unity and progress of the country.

On his part, the former vice president, Atiku, believes that if supported by such a broad-based collaboration of opposition politicians, he would perform better than his outing in 2023 on the troubled PDP platform.

However, the concept of a nationwide coalition gained traction when el-Rufai picked holes in the performance of the Tinubu-led APC administration.

He recapitulated the events that surrounded the 2023 APC nomination process and presidential election, stressing that the North chose to support Tinubu despite obvious reservations. According to him, since the northern governors decided to allow the South to have its shot at the Presidency, they (northern governors) supported their imperfect choice of candidate for justice and equity.

For the 2027 election, el-Rufai said the South should raise a credible candidate to serve out its remaining four years as enunciated in the rotation principle, adding that the North will mobilise support for such a candidate to restrain Tinubu to his current single term.

Speaking when he appeared in an Arise Television programme, Primetime, the former Kaduna State governor had disclosed: “The southerners were given an opportunity in 2023, but they chose Tinubu. In 2027, if he has not done well for you and the country, let’s vote him out.”

It was obvious that el-Rufai’s message of justice and equity, alongside his take on accountability as basis of leadership evaluation, provided the strategic road map for the coalition instead of the power grab or northern balance that Atiku’s nuances suggested.

Recall that in the build-up to the 2023 general election, the former vice president had asserted that what the average northerner needed was someone from the North, not Yoruba or Igbo.

Responding to a question from Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed during the interactive Policy Dialogue organised by the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) in Kaduna State, Atiku stated that after traversing the entire country, he has built bridges across the country.

He, therefore, declared that he had come to the realisation that “what the average northerner needs is somebody, who is from the North, and who also understands the other parts of Nigeria and who has been able to build bridges across the rest of the country.

“This is what the northerner needs. He (the northerner) doesn’t need a Yoruba candidate or an Igbo candidate. This is what the northerner needs. I stand before you as a Pan-Nigerian of northern origin,”

Although none of the protagonists of the current coalition plan has pointed it out, it is possible that Atiku’s pandering to northern pre-eminence in contradiction of the zoning principle contributed to the doubts being raised about the effectiveness of the coalition.

Not that alone, it is also clear that the North is neither inclined, as a bloc, to support the el-Rufai’s stance on four more years to the South nor Atiku’s arithmetic argument that presidential power should return to the North to equalise the number of years that the post had been held by presidents of southern origin.

For instance, those that kick against El-Rufai claim that his position on power retention in the South is informed by the belief that he hopes to appropriate that support as a political IOU to canvass for southern votes in his possible 2031 presidential run.

On the flipside, Atiku is being tackled by northerners who think that he should give way to younger elements after two successive presidential contests in 2019 and 2023. While opposing Atiku’s further participation in the presidential poll, a chieftain of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Buba Galadima, said El-Rufai lacks the competence to speak for the North on what to stand for in 2027.

Although former Senate President, Mark, comes in as a perfect balance, the fact of his appointment as the Protem Chairman of the ADC leaves the impression that what happened in PDP over the issue of zoning the presidential ticket could rear its head during the ADC’s presidential primary.

However, there are insinuations that Atiku wants to make 2027 his high political moment by emulating the former national chairman of ADC, Chief Ralphs Okey Nwosu, who yielded his position for Mark. That suggestion that Atiku would throw his weight behind a Southern presidential candidate remains in the realms of conjecture.

Unlike APC, when Tinubu rallied Muhammadu Buhari to defeat Atiku, Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso and other northern rivals for the APC presidential ticket, Mr. Peter Obi, who is being looked up to as the possible electoral mascot of the coalition, has no strong player driving his presidential aspiration.

As things stand currently, how the ADC resolves the issues around candidate selection in the lead up to its national convention and presidential primary would determine whether, like APC, the coalition is built to last or even conquer the giant federal ruling party and Jagaban.

Spokesman for the Obidients – Obi’s loyal supporters – Dr. Yunusa Tanko, disclosed that the proposal for a single term of four years being advocated by Obi has been officially submitted to the ADC coalition.

Tanko stated: “We’ve submitted the proposal to the coalition, and we’re confident it can work. This idea is based on integrity and Peter Obi represents that. What Nigeria needs now are leaders with character and sincerity.”

He maintained that despite the constitutional provision of maximum of two terms, Obi is committed to transforming the country in four years, stressing that the former Labour Party presidential flagbearer believes that four years was enough to fix the economy, stabilise power supply, and reposition Nigeria as an exporting nation.

How the party resolves the issue of one-term Presidency as being advocated by Obi and the possibility of allowing him the free hand to select his running mate are waiting hurdles in the journey of becoming.

Some insiders had claimed that President Tinubu’s purported move to choose a different running mate from the North West is a calculated effort to ensure that the zone with high voting numbers was not left for the coalition promoters.

And with the highly disciplined and intelligent Mark as interim chairman, how President Tinubu responds to the clamour by the North Central to produce the APC national chairman would paint a faint picture of how the battle for 2027 would shape up between the defending champions and contenders.

Mark had, in his remarks after being unveiled as acting national chairman, disclosed that although defeating President Tinubu in 2027 would not be an easy nut to crack, the coalescing of opposition politicians on ADC paves the way for a safe journey to the Presidential Villa.

In his very ambitious speech, the acting National Secretary and immediate past Minister of Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, outlined a long-range vision of the party.

He described the coalition partners as “those who still believe that politics can be a force for good, people who believe that party forms government and must control it. Those who believe in the supremacy of the party in a democracy and all products of democratic contests. Those who recognise that parties must stand for and with the people in the promotion of their interests and aspirations.”

While rejecting the notion that they were coming together for power grab, the former Osun State governor and Tinubu ally declared: “A political party is not a platform for opportunism. It is not a mere vehicle to power for the few or a tool for personal ambition. A political party, in its truest form, is a living institution built on values, guided by ideals, and accountable to the people it seeks to serve.”

Mirroring ADC after the African National Congress (ANC) of South Africa, Aregbesola noted that the 113-year-old party parades “party organisation that is impeccable in its credibility as a model of supremacy of party over its creation (government and popularly elected officials).”

The man who is tagged as the engine room of ADC regretted that “in Nigeria today, we cannot say the same about many of our political parties. Our political landscape is plagued by parties that lack ideological depth.

“They are empty shells merging and splitting, not over policy or principle, but over power and personality. There is little regard for the people, and even less for the country.”

He maintained that ADC was not planned to replicate that, adding: “As the national secretary, I will work to build a party that has a clear ideological compass, a party that is absolutely committed to the people, rooted in democratic values, rule of law, social justice, accountability, transparency and national development.”

On how the former vice president’s presidential ambition could be the greatest test for the ADC, a notable social scientist, Da Jonathan Akuns, said Atiku should emulate President Tinubu by supporting a southern candidate instead of jumping into the arena for another contest.

Akuns stated: “Consider the presidency of the USA. No vice president has shown tenacity in vying for the seat of president as is the case in Nigeria with Atiku. Very few attempted just once and left off.

“Atiku’s quest for the Presidency dates back to the SDP (Social Democratic Party) era that thrust Abiola in the 1990s. Eventually, he was VP of Obasanjo, but mismanaged the relationship including changing political parties at nearly every election cycle.

“The digital footprints of his democratic and undemocratic antecedents constitute a bug hounding to his quest. Every aspirant is entitled to his ambition; the current crop under the coalition seems motivated by grievances rather than ideological focus.”

Whether grievance politics or long term planning will define ADC would be seen as the march towards the 2027 crucible continues.