WPC Met Watch

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0491 (Issued at 934 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 )
MPD Selection

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0491 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 934 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 221333Z - 221830Z SUMMARY...Slow moving heavy thunderstorms developing over eastern ND will continue to shift northeast, but backbuild into the southwesterly deep layer flow, prolonging rainfall duration. Localized flash flooding is possible through midday. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar and satellite indicate rapid development of a thunderstorm complex over east-central ND along a low level trough above a stationary surface front and northwest of a surface low. Recent rainfall estimates from KMVX have reached 2" in Foster County in a little less than an hour. This is developing in a moist/unstable environment. A lobe of elevated moisture (PW up to 1.8" per the RAP) will continue shifting northeast over the Red River of the North valley through midday and there is a strong ML CAPE gradient SW to NE that exceeds 3000 J/kg east of the current activity. 35kt deep layer SWly flow will keep advecting the moisture north, though upwind Corfidi vectors point east which should continue to allow backbuilding. Through midday, rainfall of 1-3" can be expected in a short time frame/near one hour. 1hr FFG decreases ahead of the current activity to below 2". Localized exceedance of FFG is expected to continue, making for a possible flash flood threat through midday. Jackson ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC... LAT...LON 49029618 48289537 46179544 46929730 47309959 48149933 49009832 

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Last Updated: 934 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025