WPC Met Watch

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0390 (Issued at 335 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025 )
MPD Selection

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0390 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 335 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 070735Z - 071130Z SUMMARY...Persistent repeating convection tracking across similar areas of heavy rain/saturated grounds suggests possible flash flooding to continue for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...GOES-E and AMA/LBB RADAR mosaic show continued solid convective activity of elevated thunderstorms with some broader stronger rotating updrafts from Lamb to Cottle county Texas. Solid 925-850mb veered LLJ at 35-45kts from southeast to southerly continue to ascent across a similarly flat west to east outflow boundary a few counties south from earlier convection, continuing to be reinforced by the ongoing activity. This shallow cold pool continues to provide sufficient isentropic ascent and speed convergence to maintain moisture/instability flux to the line of cells. Recent 10.3um EIR loops has shown solid uptick in convective vigor, cloud top cooling and hard/bumpy tops suggestive of strengthening rainfall potential to accompany severe risks. Given deep layer steering flattens from just above 700mb and slows to 20-30kts, rainfall duration is starting to aid in overall rainfall accumulation over the last hour or two. Rates of 1.5"/hr given western edge of fairly deep layer moisture availability and flux; translating over similar 1hour FFG values in the 1-1.5"/hr range due to last few days, suggests additional spots of 2-3" over the next 3 hours may result in additional flash flooding incidents. GOES-E 7.3 Low-Level WV animation shows a weak circulation over northeast NM, with tightening temperature gradient likely in response to some outflow/gravity waves coming off active convection along the flanking line of the complex across the northern Panhandle. This tightening with further steepening of the lower level isentropes/frontal zone and in proximity of a well of enhanced capped MLCAPEs to 2500 J/kg, has seen newer convection develop along the NM/TX border. While this development isn't ideally aligned with convective line to the south, further expansion (and tendency to propagate south given undercutting outflow from the north) suggests training/potential for 1.5"/hr and spots of 2"+ totals in short-duration is expanding toward the northwest in the TX panhandle and adjacent NM...nearly ideally aligned with the localized minimum in FFG values. Further expanding the area of possible flash flooding incident or two over the next few hours. Gallina ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 35600270 35380195 34429971 33979844 33519853 33429969 33580147 33770223 34090277 34540311 35380356 

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Last Updated: 335 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025