WPC Met Watch

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0389 (Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025 )
MPD Selection

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0389 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 135 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...Southern OH...Central to Northeast KY...Much of WV... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 070535Z - 071100Z SUMMARY...Shallow but efficient slow moving cells capable of 1.5"/hr with some potential repeating may result in widely scattered localized flash flooding conditions overnight. DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad west to east shortwave feature crossing near Cincinnati, OH with favorable vorticity advection supporting a weak surface to boundary layer wave in southeast OH along/south of a stagnant stationary front. Ample low level moisture in the mid to upper 60s and spots of low 70s, while CIRA LPW shows a ribbon of enhanced moisture along/ahead of this wave bringing nearly moist/saturated profiles to support 1.75" total PWats. Some weak remaining unstable air remains with 250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE in the vicinity of the Ohio River and southward into eastern KY. As such, RADAR and 10.3um IR loop shows a few very shallow cells along of the wave in S OH as well as back in the trailing trof of the mid-level wave along/east of Louisville, KY. While weak, there are pockets of enhanced moisture convergence in the 10-15kts of veered low level flow to tap the weak instability. With the shallow updrafts, all of it are within the warm cloud layer, will result in highly efficient tropical like showers. Rates of 1.5-1.75" could be common over highly focused fairly narrow updrafts. The concern is the overall deep layer steering is unidirectional nearly west to east which also will contribute to an upslope component across E KY/WV over the next few hours. As such, narrow streaks of hour or two of training may support localized streaks of 1.5-2.5" over 1-3hrs across the area of concern. Given complexity of terrain, recent above average rainfall over S OH, N WV and soil saturation ratios in the 60-70% and isolated incident or two of flash flooding will continue to be possible through the overnight period. Gallina ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX... ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 39707997 39537964 39197955 38677987 38038101 37448208 36808358 36908489 37528538 38118588 38538544 38698469 38838412 38988358 39258270 39598157 

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Last Updated: 135 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025