Apple Original Films‘ Brad Pitt movie and Blumhouse and Atomic Monster/Universal’s hit three week tracking this morning, each with an eye at $30M+ in their 3-day opening over June 27-29, the pre-July 4th frame.

Some, not all sources, are seeing that F1, which cost Apple $300M, actually has the edge a bit over the killer doll with $35M, maybe a $40M start in U.S./Canada. F1, which also stars Javier Bardem, Kerry Condon, and Damson Idris, was shot around the world at myriad Formula One races.

When it comes to F1, the rally is expected to be at the overseas box office where Formula One is more popular than the U.S. Warner Bros. is distributing the movie around the world on behalf of Apple. The footage shown at CinemaCon riveted the room of exhibitors.

That said, we’ve heard the Joseph Kosinski directed movie has tested very well, and could surprise. “It definitely moves faster than Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning” one non-Warner Bros source told us. Media screenings are already being held for F1.

The first M3GAN opened in the post 2023 New Year corridor to a surprising $30.4M and legged out to $95.1M domestic, $180M worldwide on a $12M production cost; fueled by TikTok and dancing Megan doll troupe videos which made a splash at major landmarks and late night talk shows. The PG-13 killer doll sequel is strongest with women under 25 in unaided awareness, but also solid in women over 25, as well as all men. In fact, M3GAN 2.0 came on ahead of its first chapter in unaided awareness and in total awareness (hello, it’s a sequel!).

Unaided awareness is that polling category whereby those being queried actually bring up the title of a movie they’re interested in without being prodded by the pollster.

F1‘s best demos are men in unaided awareness, but in first choice men over 25 are leading, followed by women over 25 and men under 25. In unaided awareness, F1‘s tracking is ahead of pre-Covid’s Ford v. Ferrari which opened to $31.4M and legged out to $117.6M.

Kosinski previously directed Tom Cruise’s biggest opening and hit, Top Gun: Maverick which opened to $126.7M 3-day over Memorial Day weekend 2022, and legged out to $718.7M domestic. F1 isn’t expected to emulate that long-awaited sequel’s box office trajectory.

Both movies will run into Universal’s Jurassic World: Rebirth on Wednesday, July 2.