Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
The Wairarapa Building Society (WBS) cut it 12 and 18 month fixed rates today. And in case you missed it yesterday, Kāinga Ora trimmed all their fixed rates. .
The Heretaunga Building Society (HBS) trimmed some rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are , for 1-5 years, they are .
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Two major bank's have analysts house price gains 'remain glacial'. Both ANZ and BNZ economists have downgraded their 2025 house price forecasts, but they are expecting stronger increases next year.
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The FMA is telling the financial services sector 'we are watching you'. Their latest highlights conduct problems they are following and what are the areas of regulatory focus.
NZ has recorded its fourth consecutive monthly goods . The primary sector is continuing to provide bumper exports, which saw exports rise +9.7% and imports fall -7.2% in the month for a monthly goods trade surplus of over $1.2 bln in the month, similar to April. And apart from the import-suppressed pandemic, we have never before has two consecutive months of $1 bln+ trade surpluses before. The combined +$3.75 bln surplus is the most for a consecutive run (but also apart from the pandemic period).
Apart from the big year-on-year dairy (+17%), meat (+10%), and fruit (+41%) gains, it is probably worth noting that gold (+29%) and medical equipment (+17% - FPH?) were also big gainers. Notable for its [small -0.3%] decline is the export of wine. Aluminium was up only +0.4% and steel products fell almost -9%.
In May we ran much largest trade surpluses with China, the USA, Australia, and Korea, and a much smaller trade deficit with Korea. Our trade deficit with Singapore is now a big deal, basically because we buy most of our fuel oil from their refineries. Our May trade deficit with Singapore exceeded that with Korea now.
As at 3pm, is up very marginally today, but down -1.2% for the past week. It is down -4.0% since the start of the year although up +7.9% from this time last year. Scales, Channel Infrastructure, Vista, and Argosy gain; Fletcher Building, Goodman Property, Air NZ, and Investore decline.
Xero is doing to finance the US$2.5 bln/NZ$4.2 bln purchase of an Israeli-owned US dominated SME payments platform, Melio. Melio has a good growth history but has struggled through a number of growth imbalances and many layoff rounds. Some analysts say they operate in a "crowded market". Indigestion when expanding into the giant American market is a common fintech problem, one Xero themselves have experienced.
StatsNZ does , and it updated them today by looking ahead 50+ years. That covers one working life, taking those entering the labour force today at 15 who will be 68 in 2078. It will be no surprise that they found our labour force will age over that period. But it might be a surprise that it won't age as much as some may have assumed. Today, 71% of the population is now of 'working age' (15-64). By 2051 it will be between 64% and 75%. By 2078 is will be between 57% and 73%, they say. Whatever it is, they reckon average hours worked will be little different to now.
Winston Peters has moved to in New Zealand. British sports betting company Entain is to be protected from any competition here.
Hot on the heals of the Spiers securitisation we noted yesterday, Avanti Finance has announced it will be securitising $250 mln of their mortgage-based debt. They operate at the end of the market banks tend to avoid. These mortgage loans can support vehicle or other personal loan requirements. Their variable home loan rates range between 6.90% and 9.30%. Their 'specialist first mortgage loan' rates range from 8.34% to 10.94%. They also offer 'bridging loans'.
In Australia, their fell to 2.1% in May, down from 2.4% in both March and April. That is a seven month low, and lower than the 2.3% rate expected. The main influence for the reduction were fruit & vegetable prices (from +6.1% to +2.8%), and travel & accommodation (from +5.3% to +0.6%).
In China, their central bank injected ¥300 bln into financial institutions through a one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) into the country's banking system. This is what was expected.
are likely notably softer today in a shift. Keep an eye on below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.29% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.15%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.54% but was down -3 bps at 4.53% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now down -5 bps from this time yesterday, back to 4.30%.
The NZX50 is now down -0.1% so far today on weak sentiment. The ASX200 is unchanged in Wednesday afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.1% in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.7% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore has opened up +0.5%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session up +1.1% on the S&P500.
The oil price is -US$1.50lower in the US, back to just over US$65.50/bbl and now just under US$68 for the international Brent price.
The carbon price is unchanged at NZ$59/NZU but with few trades. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of .
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$22/oz from yesterday at US$3328/oz.
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday at 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at just on 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.1 and up +10 bps.
The bitcoin price is now at US$106,593 and up another +1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low though at just on +/-0.9%.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
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