Abuja — Nigeria's crude oil production slumped by an estimated 46.4 million barrels in the first four months of 2025, spanning January to April, a development seen as a key threat to the country's 2025 budget.

An analysis of data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) for the four months showed that the country's actual crude oil output was 200.8 million barrels for the period compared to a projected production of roughly 247.2 million barrels.

This represented about 18.7 per cent production deficit recorded during the period under consideration, a review of the four-month data showed.

By the 2.06 million barrels per day oil benchmark in the 2025 budget, Nigeria's production, including oil and condensate, from January to December, should be in the region of 61.8 million barrels every month.

However, the data from the upstream regulator indicated that in January, total production, including condensate, was 53.86 barrels; in February, it fell to 46.81 barrels ; in March crude oil produced was 49.7 million barrels, while it was 50.5 million barrels in April.

The Nigerian economy is projected to grapple with significant challenges this year, stemming from declining oil production, falling global oil prices, and a substantial budget deficit, all of which are impacting the nation's economic growth trajectory.

The 2025 federal budget, totaling N55 trillion, was predicated on an oil price benchmark of N75 per barrel and a daily production target of 2.06 million barrels. However, actual production has consistently fallen short, averaging around 1.6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of the year.

The shortfall, amounting to a deficit of approximately 46.4 million barrels in the first four months of this year, per THISDAY analysis, has resulted in an estimated revenue loss of $3 billion to the federal government, at an average of $65 per barrel of Brent this year, further exacerbating the fiscal strain.

To ameliorate the impact of the fall in international oil prices, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has recently urged the federal government to reassess the 2025 budget in light of these developments.

This recent decline is attributed to increased global oil production from non-members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries as well as the cartel itself. Besides, there has been a slowdown in demand growth due to global economic uncertainties, including Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.

The information provided by the NUPRC showed that for each month, Nigeria produced 1.737 million bpd in January; 1.671 million bpd in February; 1.603 million in March; and 1.683 million bpd in April.

Also, a breakdown showed that daily crude oil production, excluding condensate, stood at 1.53 million bpd in January; 1.46 million bpd in February; 1.4 million bpd in March and 1.48 million bpd in April.

Aside from the fall in prices, Nigeria's crude oil production has faced significant setbacks due to a combination of oil theft, pipeline sabotage, infrastructural issues, and underinvestment, leading to substantial economic losses and environmental degradation.

In recent years, oil theft has been a major contributor to production losses. At its peak in 2022, Nigeria was losing approximately 108,000 barrels per day to theft. However, concerted efforts by the Nigerian government and security agencies have led to a significant reduction in these losses.

For the four months under consideration, production mainly came from Bonny, which saw its output fall from 8.1 million barrels in January to 7.4 million in April; Brass output which slumped from 1 million barrels in January to 747,000 in April as well as Qua Iboe, which fell from 4.6 million to 4.3 million between January and April.

Also, production from Excravos fell from 4.4 million barrels to 4.3 million barrels within the four months; Odudu decreased from 2.3 million barrels to 2.1 million barrels during the period, while it rose from the Forcados terminal from 8.8 million barrels to 9.3 million barrels during the month. Nigeria has long been heavily dependent on crude oil, although there have been gradual attempts to shift toward diversification.

Oil remains Nigeria's primary export commodity, constituting about 90 per cent of the country's export earnings. This heavy reliance on oil exports makes the economy vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations and production challenges.

In response to these vulnerabilities, the Nigerian government has attempted to enhance tax administration and unify foreign exchange rates, which collectively increased federal revenue from about N6.8 trillion in 2023 to N12.4 trillion in 2024.

Additionally, the non-oil sector has shown robust growth, contributing 94.49 per cent to the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, driven by sectors such as services, agriculture, and industry.