June 22, 2025

How to Train Your Dragon will comfortably stay at the top of the box office chart this weekend, with Universal projecting it will decline 56% from its opening weekend to $37 million this time around. Every film in the top 10 is coming in behind our model’s Friday prediction, with 28 Years Later looking set to finish with $30 million on debut, and Elio headed for a disappointing $21 million.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

How to Train Your Dragon will have $160.5 million in the bank domestically and $197.7 million internationally by the end of the weekend, for a global total of $358.2 million. Our model is predicting it will finish with around $250 million domestically, which should translate into a global total of about $550 million. That will make it (temporarily) the fifth-highest-grossing movie worldwide released in 2025.

As discussed on Friday, the Juneteenth factor made predicting the details of the weekend difficult, with 28 Days Later and Elio falling far short of the model’s prediction. Generally, all films in the top 10 were about 10% behind the model’s prediction, and the market as a whole will be down about 19% from last weekend, although still well over $100 million.

The biggest “miss” this weekend is undoubtedly Elio, which will have the worst opening weekend ever for a Pixar movie, lower than Elemental’s $29.6 million two years ago. That film ended with $154.4 million domestically thanks to fantastic legs, and there’s reason to expect Elio will have a relatively good run too. Reaching $100 million domestically seems like a long shot, though. Perhaps even more worrying is the fact that Elio will only manage $14 million internationally this weekend, with no territory contributing even $2 million to that total.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,