Despite the babble of voices for and against the purported planned alteration of the presidential ticket of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027, the move tends to be President Bola Ahmad Tinubu’s strategy to whip the North into line and ensure the region’s collective support for his second term electoral victory, LEO SOBECHI writes.

The first sign that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would attempt to reconfigure the APC’s presidential ticket on the ballot in 2027 emerged barely two months into his administration. In July 2023, Senator Abdullahi Adamu suddenly resigned from his position as the National Chairman of APC, thus altering the zonal balance of political offices within the party.

When Adamu was supported by the Buhari Presidency to become the party’s national chairman, the argument was that the former officials, having hailed from the South, the power sharing principle between the North and South predicated that the next occupant should come from the North. And with Buhari coming from North-West likewise the then President of the Senate, Dr Ahmad Lawan, it was easy to settle for Adamu, even though the initial plan was for stakeholders to queue behind another former Nasarawa governor, Senator Tanko Al-Makura. However, it was learnt that Al-Makura was dropped when insiders disclosed his closeness to Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) tendencies in APC.

The Guardian learnt that Adamu was brought in as APC national chairman by then President Muhammadu Buhari in 2022 for the singular purpose of helping him (Buhari) to prosecute a dodgy succession plan, which entailed throwing up a northern successor and ensuring that Tinubu, who was identified as leader, did not smell the Presidency. But, having failed to impose Lawan on the party as its presidential candidate, as well as suffering the indignity of having the rejected stone standing tall as the major pillar of the APC house, Adamu, who was also President Tinubu’s contemporary as a member of the class 1999 governors, decided to save face and quit.

Curiously, in the absence of Adamu, who, as a former governor of Nasarawa State, hails from North Central, the immediate past Kano State chief executive, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, was chosen by President Tinubu to superintend over the affairs of APC.

Recalling that in a similar scenario when the party’s former national chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, was stopped from seeking a second term, his fellow Edo State kinsman, in the person of Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, was selected as replacement, the APC stakeholders of North Central kicked against the decision.

The North Central stalwarts fought, albeit underground, believing that the President would use the opportunity of the anticipated mid-term convention of the party last year to right what they perceived as unintended wrong against their zone. But, to the utter chagrin of the stakeholders, instead of locating Adamu’s proper replacement from their zone, the mid-term convention did not hold, just as the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party meeting at the Presidential Villa, rezoned the office of the national chairman to the North West.

Come August this year, Ganduje would be marking the second anniversary of his ascension to that office. What is more, the NEC decision in February this year, to a great extent, raised his hopes of retaining that office up to and even beyond the 2027 polls.

However, that high hope seems to be dampened by small talks within the Presidency suggesting that when President Tinubu undertakes a vacation in two months’ time, his return would usher in a cabinet reshuffle that could affect not only the Federal Executive Council, but also the leadership structure of the party.

There are also small talks about the possibility of the current Minister of Defence, Abubakar Baduru, being moved to replace Ganduje and thereby retaining the chairmanship in North West. Also, the recent fracas in Gombe regarding the plot to drop the Vice President from the presidential ticket in 2027 has renewed the hopes for an alternative opening for North West.

It is therefore at the intersection of what becomes of the two positions that both North Central and North-West have renewed their hope for a better deal in the build up to the 2027 general elections.

Yet, as the issues of change of presidential running mate continue to gather credence, nobody has been able to decode how President Tinubu’s mind is working concerning the retention or alteration of the Muslim/Muslim joint ticket. Some names have been popping up as possible picks as Shettima’s substitute. In the main, the question remains whether President Tinubu’s review of the running mate status would favour the North Central or North-West.

Voting Bloc Versus Balancing Act
Parading the highest number of states as a region, the North-West is credited with having exceptional voting numbers. It is these voting numbers that have become the bragging rights of the zone, even as former APC governors from the region accuse President Tinubu of reneging on previous agreement to pick one of them as running mate.

The former governors also alleged that the choice of Shettima by Tinubu to pair up with him after emerging as the party’s standard bearer in 2022 was without the input of relevant stakeholders. The governors regretted that apart from the issue of the feasibility of having a Muslim/Muslim joint ticket, Tinubu did not get back to them to announce his final decision.

But, a former National Secretary of the party, Architect Waziri Bulama, told The Guardian that contrary to claims by the then outgoing North-West governors, Tinubu engaged with stakeholders as part of his prolonged nationwide consultation on the choice of running mate.

As the disputes over what and how the President should go about his choice of running mate for the second term race continue, names of possible replacement for Shettima from the various geopolitical zones in the North continue to make the rounds.

Of all the names being bandied around, only two are Christians suggesting that if indeed the re-jigging of the APC presidential ticket is to take place, it should be dictated by the need for religious balance rather than mere political consideration of electoral heft.

Senator George Akume, the current Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), has been a strong ally of President Tinubu. In the onset of the 8th National Assembly, it was gathered that the former Benue State governor was Tinubu’s initial preference for the office of Senate President before the issue of religious balance crept in.

APC chieftains had reasoned that since the last occupant of the office was a Christian from North Central, it was only proper that the search for the next President of the Senate should not only be a Muslim, but also hail from the North-East geopolitical zone.

Although President Tinubu later settled for Ahmad Lawan, his efforts to get the then president Buhari to address a meeting convened to present Lawan and other candidates as National Assembly floor functionary-nominees hit the rocks. Former Kwara State governor, Senator Bukola Saraki, played a fast one by circumventing Tinubu’s scheme to emerge as the President of the 8th Senate.

Akume’s failed projection for the office of Senate President was not the first time that Tinubu tried to prop up a North Central for national political office. In the short-lived third republic, Tinubu worked behind the scenes to ensure the emergence of Iyorchia Ayu as the President of the Senate.

Sources say that following the hoopla that attended the Muslim/Muslim ticket, the President was considering a review of the ticket to respect the religious sensibilities of Nigerians. That is where Akume’s name started whirling about for “a possible new role in the Presidency.”

The other Christian name associated with the purported planned substitution of Shettima is the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, who was initially penciled by bookmakers in 2022 as possible VP candidate when Tinubu secured the APC presidential ticket.

Although Dogara was among APC chieftains that were taken aback by the Muslim/Muslim presidential ticket, the former Speaker had been a die-hard Tinubu ally, who averted a possible replay of the APC/PDP power sharing that happened in the Senate in the House of Representatives.

Insiders aver that it was in deference to Tinubu that Yussuf Lasun emerged as Deputy Speaker under Dogara in the 8th NASS. Dogara’s religious background apart, the fact that he hails from the North-East lends him some credence if indeed the President wants to attempt a divorce with Shettima.

However, despite the attempt to renew the Muslim/Muslim contention, stakeholders from North-West insist on the revisit of the initial understanding with President Tinubu as a basis of the region’s bloc vote in 2027. Some APC chieftains in the zone used the opportunity of President Tinubu’s recent official visit to Katsina State to redound the fact of the zone’s electoral weight.

It was perhaps against the background of “the Katsina show of political force” that such names as Badaru, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin and Senator Magatakarda Wammako, started competing for national attention.

Though Wammako and Senator Jibrin have denied their interest in serving as President Tinubu’s running mate in 2027, their foot soldiers insist that their feeble rejection was a mere show of political modesty and deference to the current VP.

Apart from the troika from North-West, the other Muslim hopefuls as possible VP picks are former governor Mohammed Umar Bago and National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu. While Ribadu, who hails from same North-East as Shettima, is said to be on President Tinubu’s mind as a potential successor, Bago, who is in the same age bracket with Dogara, comes as a strong alternative to appease the North Central, which equally boasts of high voter population.

Unlike Dogara and Bago, who were once members of the National Assembly, Ribadu has not held any elective office; a factor which some insiders said explains why the President wants to bring him closer for grooming. It could be recalled that although Tinubu supported Ribadu to contest the presidential election on the platform of Action Congress in 2011, he was only traded as a bargaining chip with President Goodluck Jonathan.

Unless President Tinubu wants to make it up for Ribadu or enlist Dogara for religious balance, the competition to take Shettima’s place in 2027 remains a feature of political struggle between North Central and North-West.

Speaking on the jostling for the 2027 VP slot, a prominent advocate for constitutional review, Da Jonathan Akuns, said members of APC and supporters of Vice President Shettima should note that only the candidate, the ticket holder, reserves the right to choose his running mate.

Akuns, however, remarked that it is only on the score of religious balance that President Tinubu is yet to get it right, stressing that unless there is anything between the President and his deputy, the question of who deputises him in 2027 is one they can resolve among themselves.

While agreeing that the issue of religious balance could be President Tinubu’s desire to change his running mate, Akuns stated: “The only downside of Tinubu’s ticket is the lack of religious balance. But, in terms of regional balance, ethnic balance, he got the two correctly. The religious balance is where he has scored zero.”

Going by the voting bloc and zonal balance squabbling between North-West and North Central APC stalwarts for the VP slot, it could be seen that only religious balance could underpin President Tinubu’s quest for a new running mate.

Unless that is so, the attempt to change Shettima would be a tacit affirmation of failure, since it is often said that no wise coach changes a winning team.