US-China Trade Talks Commence in London

U.S. stock markets commenced the week on a positive note, with Wall Street's main indexes opening higher on Monday. This cautious optimism was fueled by a fresh round of trade negotiations between the United States and China, taking place in London, aimed at resolving a trade dispute that has unsettled financial markets for a significant part of the year.
In early trading on Monday, the S&P 500 showed little change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight dip, slipping 79 points or 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up by 0.1%. Investor hopes that President Donald Trump might lower tariffs following trade agreements with various countries have been a key factor in the S&P 500's recent surge. Separately, Warner Bros. Discovery saw its stock jump after announcing it would split into two companies.
Global financial markets presented a mixed picture on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of the U.S.-China trade discussions. Futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up by 0.1%. In Europe, the CAC 40 in Paris declined by 0.1% to 7,797.64, and Germany's DAX edged 0.4% lower to 24,210.06. The British FTSE 100 remained relatively unchanged at 8,836.20.
Asian markets generally saw gains. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 increased by 0.9% to 38,088.57, even as government data revealed that the Japanese economy had contracted by 0.2% in the January-March quarter. South Korea's Kospi advanced by 1.6% to 2,855.77.
Chinese markets also rose, despite a government report indicating a slowdown in export growth in May, which stood at 4.8% year-on-year, down from over 8% in April. Notably, exports to the United States fell by 35% in May and nearly 10% in the January-May period on an annual basis. Furthermore, China reported a 0.1% year-on-year fall in consumer prices for May, marking the fourth consecutive month of deflation. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index picked up 1.6% to 24,181.43, and the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.4% to 3,399.77. Australian markets were closed for a holiday.
Reflecting on the previous trading week, U.S. stocks gained ground on Wall Street on Friday following a U.S. job market report that exceeded expectations. The gains were reported as broad, with every sector in the S&P 500 rising. This performance solidified a second consecutive winning week for the benchmark index, which has rallied significantly from a slump two months prior, nearing its record high. On that day, the S&P 500 rose by 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrials lost 1%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2%.
Technology stocks, with their substantial market values, led Friday's broad gains. Chipmaker Nvidia jumped 1.2%, and iPhone maker Apple rose 1.6%. Tesla's stock increased by 3.7%, recovering some losses from Thursday when President Trump and Elon Musk had a heated exchange on social media. Circle Internet Group, a U.S.-based issuer of a popular cryptocurrency, saw its stock rise by 29.4%, adding to its 168% gain since its New York Stock Exchange debut on Thursday.
The U.S. job market showed signs of slowing hiring in the last month but still added a solid 139,000 jobs, indicating resilience amidst uncertainties stemming from President Donald Trump's trade war. This closely watched monthly update reaffirmed the job market's strength, despite concerns from businesses and consumers about the impact of tariffs on goods. Investor optimism that President Trump will reduce tariffs after striking trade deals is a primary driver for the S&P 500's strong rally from its approximately 20% drop from an all-time high two months ago.
The U.S. economy is currently absorbing the impact of tariffs on a wide array of goods from key trading partners and on raw materials like steel. Concerns persist that heavier tariffs could adversely affect businesses and consumers in the coming months. The U.S. economy experienced a contraction during the first quarter. Recent surveys from the Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing managers, indicated that both American manufacturing and services sectors contracted last month.
Adding to the cautious economic outlook, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday forecast 1.6% growth for the U.S. economy this year, a decrease from the 2.8% growth recorded last year. This prevailing uncertainty regarding tariffs and their economic consequences has placed the Federal Reserve in a delicate position regarding monetary policy.
In other trading activity early Monday, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices lost 21 cents, trading at $64.37 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gave up 23 cents to $66.24 per barrel. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar retreated to 144.09 Japanese yen from 144.85 yen, while the euro edged higher to $1.1426 from $1.1399.