) has issued its seasonal outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting an above-normal level of activity. The forecast means Canada and the United States of America are likely to face the fury of several major hurricanes during the later half of the year.The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October.

NOAA's forecast indicates a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”

The agency anticipates 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 potentially becoming hurricanes, and 3 to 5 reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).

Several key factors contribute to NOAA's outlook:


NOAA's Director of the National Weather Service, Ken Graham, emphasized the importance of preparedness: "This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."

The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), NOAA's flagship hurricane forecast model, has been upgraded for the 2025 season. This upgrade aims to improve the accuracy of storm tracking and intensity forecasts, providing forecasters with more reliable data to issue timely warnings and advisories.

Communication boost for inclusivity

With an active hurricane season expected, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is stepping up its communication efforts. For the first time, key hurricane updates like advisories and outlooks will be available in Spanish, ensuring Spanish-speaking communities get timely information.

A new forecast cone graphic will show inland areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, including places with overlapping alerts, helping people farther from the coast understand their risk.

Additionally, a rip current risk map will warn beachgoers about dangerous surf caused by distant storms, using data from local National Weather Service offices.

These improvements aim to keep all communities better informed and safer. As NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham says, “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared.”

Implications for coastal communities

While the forecast does not specify exact landfall locations, an above-normal season increases the likelihood of hurricanes impacting coastal areas. Residents in hurricane-prone regions are urged to review and update their emergency plans, ensure they have necessary supplies, and stay informed through official channels as the season progresses.