America's economic expansion, now spanning nearly five years, is showing signs of strain. Mounting layoffs, slowing hiring, declining consumer confidence, and rising inflation are creating cracks in the economic foundation. These challenges, while potentially occurring under any administration, are being intensified by the uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump's economic policies.

Tariffs, characterized by their unpredictable implementation, are causing confusion among businesses, consumers, and investors. These tariffs are also fueling concerns about inflation, which has been stubbornly on the rise. The President’s restrictive immigration policies are posing difficulties for key sectors such as agriculture, construction, and healthcare, which are already grappling with labor shortages. Furthermore, significant cuts to federal jobs and government aid could disproportionately affect vulnerable Americans who are least equipped to handle rising prices.

Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, warned that federal government job losses could exceed expectations, leading to reduced spending by laid-off workers and slower job growth in other industries. He also noted that tariff uncertainty could cause businesses to delay hiring, and immigration restrictions could limit the available labor supply, hindering employment gains.

Although President Trump has postponed some of the most severe tariff threats following discussions with business leaders, these measures are scheduled to take full effect on April 2. The President has acknowledged that tariffs will cause “a little disturbance,” but he has also stated that his economic plan could be painful for some initially, characterizing it as a period of transition.

Stock markets reacted negatively to these comments, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to fall significantly. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have also experienced declines since Trump took office, particularly in response to tariff announcements. While President Trump previously touted market records as indicators of economic strength, he has been less vocal about the stock market recently.

Recent economic data reveals more than just a minor disturbance. Consumer spending unexpectedly declined in January, with the largest monthly declines since February 2021. Prices are rebounding, leading to an annual inflation rate of 3% for the 12 months ending in January. Consumer confidence has also declined significantly, with the largest monthly drop since August 2021. Additionally, employers have announced the most layoffs in February since the Great Recession.

A Federal Reserve forecast indicates that the U.S. economy may contract this quarter, with a potential annualized adjusted rate decline of nearly 3%. This would mark the first quarter of economic contraction since 2022. Concerns about the economy are influencing consumer spending decisions, as evidenced by recent reports from Target and Walmart, which cite tariffs and inflation as factors leading to reduced consumer spending.

Despite these challenges, the U.S. economy remains strong and resilient, with businesses seeking deregulation and tax cuts. However, corporate America values certainty, which is currently lacking. Consumers need confidence that their spending will be offset by future income and that their money will retain its value. This confidence is undermined by tariffs, immigration concerns, and mass job cuts.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which surveys business leaders, mentioned tariffs frequently, indicating growing concerns about higher import taxes. Additionally, more companies in the S&P 500 mentioned tariffs on earnings calls than at any point in the past decade.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges the rising uncertainty but remains optimistic that consumer spending will not simply cease. He points to the “vibecession” of 2022, when consumers continued to spend despite low sentiment. Powell maintains that the U.S. economy is in a good place, and sentiment readings have not accurately predicted consumption growth in recent years.

Meanwhile, federal judges are increasingly voicing concerns about potential threats to democracy and constitutional norms. These judges, appointed by both Democratic and Republican administrations, are expressing unease about the erosion of constitutional principles during the Trump administration. They are breaking from judicial restraint and defying the reluctance to challenge President Trump.

Several judges have made statements emphasizing the importance of the rule of law and the separation of powers. For instance, a judge in Washington, D.C., stated that an American President is not a king. A judge in Rhode Island invoked America's founding principles, cautioning against ignoring the Constitution and laws. A judge in Seattle declared that the rule of law is an impediment to President Trump's policy goals.

Current and retired federal judges are closely monitoring this emerging pattern, with some supporting the jurists' outspokenness and others believing that judges should exercise restraint in the current polarized climate. Supreme Court justices have largely avoided making broad statements about President Trump's initiatives, but Justice Samuel Alito has warned against judicial hubris.

More than 100 cases have been filed against President Trump's executive orders and policies since he took office. The judiciary's role as a check on the executive branch remains uncertain, particularly given the Republican-led Congress's support for President Trump's agenda. These judicial voices of distress may indicate increased scrutiny of President Trump's policies or reveal internal friction within the federal bench regarding how to respond to his efforts to expand executive power.

Federal judges, appointed for life, adhere to canons of impartiality, creating a dilemma regarding how freely to express their opinions. Furthermore, judges may be concerned about provoking backlash. Calls for the impeachment of judges who rule against the administration have been made, raising concerns about intimidation and the need for lawyers to defend the judiciary.

Judge John Coughenour, in Seattle, criticized President Trump for playing “policy games” and treating the rule of law as something to be ignored. Judge Deborah Boardman, in Maryland, blocked President Trump's attempt to undermine birthright citizenship, stating that it conflicts with the Fourteenth Amendment. Judge William Alsup, in San Francisco, expressed alarm at the administration's approach to mass firings of probationary employees.

Judge John McConnell, in Rhode Island, looked to founding history and emphasized the importance of a balanced approach to governance. He stated that the Trump administration had put itself above Congress by blocking appropriated funds, disrupting critical programs. Judge Loren AliKhan, in Washington, D.C., also blocked the administration's pause on financial assistance, citing the nationwide chaos and paralysis it generated.

Judge Beryl Howell, also in Washington, D.C., declared President Trump's firing of Gwynne Wilcox from the National Labor Relations Board an illegal act. She insisted that the President's power to remove federal officers is not absolute and can be constrained.