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Sometimes, just 20 minutes lie between a dream vacation and a horrific travel experience. It’s early May in Seattle – in the far northwestern corner of the U.S. Birgit and Martin Kreil, both from Vienna, are experienced travelers to the U.S., with the couple having made the trip around half a dozen times. They have family in Seattle, which is why they regularly fly the 11 hours across the Atlantic. Never before have they encountered any problems.

But this time, it’s different. This time, as they are standing before the border control officials, the procedure appears to have changed. The officers flip through their passports before consulting with their colleagues. Then comes the command: "Follow me.” They are led to a neon-lit room with a handful of chairs and forced to relinquish their mobile phones. Nobody tells them why or gives them any kind of explanation as to why they have been pulled aside, says Birgit Keil, 45. They are left completely alone and began growing concerned. "I thought that was it and that we would be placed on the next flight back,” says Martin Kreil, 46.

Their ordeal ends after 20 minutes, though it seems far longer to the Kreils. The officials wordlessly return their passports and mobile phones and gesture to the door. They are allowed to enter the country to attend Birgit’s family reunion in addition to a flight to Hawaii to celebrate her father’s 85th birthday. But they are left with a bad taste in their mouths. "Arbitrary,” she says. "Banana republic,” he says.

"I can have a visa. I can have solid proof that I really only want to go on vacation. And it still completely depends on the Homeland Security official who is on duty,” says Birgit Kreil. And this despite the fact that the U.S. is like a second home for her. The atmosphere in the country, the food, the warmth – everything is so familiar. Its roots in democracy are also an attraction. "This is not how I want my vacation to start,” she says. Next year, her husband interjects, "we’ll definitely go somewhere else. We won’t be coming back to the U.S. anytime soon.”

It's quite a statement. And not one you would have expected to hear even just a year ago. For decades, the U.S. has been the holy grail of vacation destinations for many in Europe, the Germans first and foremost. It has been seen as a synonym of freedom, of wide-open spaces, of a shared system of values and open arms. A country with a democratic view of the world and plenty of comfort to boot. Now, though, under President Donald Trump, all that has changed. The U.S. is becoming a no-go area for tourists. As a European, you "don’t feel welcome there at the moment,” says Joachim Meyerhoff, the bestselling German author and actor, summarizing the view held by many Germans.

Over and over again in the past several weeks, there have been headlines about travelers being rejected at the borders or even arrested. There were the young high school graduates from Rostock who flew to Hawaii with their backpacks and valid papers, but without a hotel reservation. They were handcuffed and interrogated before having to fly back home after spending several hours in custody. Or the Berlin tattoo artist Jessica Brösche who spent six weeks in pre-deportation detention because she had her tattooing needles with her and the border officials presumed she had been intending to work illegally in the U.S. Or the French scientist who wasn’t allowed to enter the country after a border guard found messages critical of Trump on his mobile phone. And then there were Lucas Sielaff and Fabian Schmidt, two German citizens who were detained simply for trying to enter the country – even though Schmidt even had a Green Card, a permanent residency permit for the U.S. Not everyone was allowed to enter the U.S. before Trump either, of course. But now, every case that hits the headlines reinforces the impression that the U.S. has become inhospitable. And more and more people from Germany and elsewhere in Europe are thinking twice before booking a vacation there.

The president’s inhumane deportation policies, which even some conservatives have a problem with; his tariffs, which ignore America’s decades-long alliances; his furious assault on the LGBTQ+ community, Blacks, Asians, leftists, the woke and the liberal; his attempt to prevent foreign students from studying at America’s elite universities; his temporary halt to visas for au pairs and exchange students; his complete ban on travelers from more than a dozen, mostly African countries while giving preferential visas to wealthy foreigners. And, more recently, Trump’s aggressive assault against relatively harmless demonstrations. Taken together, it sends a clear message to the rest of the world: If you aren’t with me, you are against me. And if you are against me, you may face persecution.

It leaves an impression. And it isn’t a good one.

The world’s oldest democracy, previously the land of unlimited opportunity – those labels have been obscured by a dark cloud of mistrust. The U.S., until recently one of Germany’s closest allies despite occasional disagreements, has become more foreign than ever. And as is often the case with eroding friendships, the number of visits is dropping and interest is waning. People are staying away.

Instead of the 9 percent increase in international arrivals to the U.S. that had been predicted, tourism authorities are now saying that 2025 will see a 10 percent drop in arrivals – a gap of almost 20 percentage points. According to Oxford Economics, the United States is the only one of the 184 economies analyzed that is predicted to see a decline in spending by international visitors in 2025.

Canadians, especially, are staying away in droves. Since Trump took office, the number of people passing through some overland border crossings has plunged by almost half. Which is hardly a surprise given that the president has referred to Canada on more than one occasion as the 51st state and threatened to annex the country.

European interest in traveling to the U.S. is also dropping. New York now believes the number of international guests visiting the city will be 17 percent lower than forecasts earlier in the year. Denmark and Finland have issued travel warnings for transgender travelers. Germany’s government has at least updated its travel advisories for the U.S. to note that "false information about the purpose of stay or even a slight overstay” may lead to "arrest, detention and deportation.” From the beginning of the year to the end of May, the number of Germans flying to the U.S. dropped by almost 8 percent relative to the same period a year earlier. In the Netherlands, the drop was 11 percent, and it was 6.5 percent for both Belgium and Norway.

Some tourist destinations have seen between 30 and 50 percent fewer visitors. Many places only managed to pull themselves out of the depths seen during the pandemic with the help of huge marketing offensives – only to now find themselves facing the next setback. In recent weeks, one U.S. hotel chain after the next has revised its earning predictions. Whereas before, they were expecting solid growth and rising profits, the new focus is on damage control. Travelers are in "wait-and-see mode,” says Hilton. Which means they aren’t booking. Expedia, the large travel platform on the web, has identified strong "headwinds.” International bookings for the U.S., the platform says, are down by 7 percent, and bookings from Canada have plunged by a third.

The airlines have reported similar stasis. Delta recently announced that reservations have stagnated, while United and Virgin Atlantic bemoaned the weak demand and the "uncertainty,” leading to losses. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr is still officially claiming that the airline’s profitable U.S. routes have remained stable, particularly in the premium classes and in trips from the U.S. to Europe. Internally, though, there has been talk of weaker than usual numbers when it comes to long-term bookings, particularly from German customers. For last minute travelers, to be sure, that is good news: Tickets to America can be had for cheaper than they have been for years.

From an economic standpoint, the season seems to be over even before the main travel wave. Although domestic travel within the United States makes up the lion’s share of tourism dollars spent, the holidaymakers and business travelers from other countries bring in a lot of money to the tourism strongholds. But according to calculations by the UN’s World Travel and Tourism Council, they will spend around $12 billion less this year than they did in 2024. That would be 20 percent less than before the pandemic – a "wakeup call for the U.S. government,” says WTTC CEO Julia Simpson. The world’s biggest tourism economy, she said, is "going in the wrong direction.” Whereas other countries are rolling out the welcome mats, "the U.S. government is putting up the 'closed’ sign.” And the country is doing nothing to stop the slide. On the contrary: It was recently announced that the U.S. Senate intends to reduce the budget of the marketing organization "Brand USA” from $100 million to just $20 million. Eliminating "wasteful spending” is the goal of such cuts, according to a press release from the office of Republican Senator Ted Cruz.

One of the largest economic sectors of the U.S., it appears, is facing a deep crisis, triggered by U.S. policymakers. A rather significant outcome for a president who has only been in office for half a year.

For Trump, who is also in the hotel business, it’s "no big deal.” After all, as he sees it, the U.S. is unique, and those wanting to see the Grand Canyon, Yosemite and the beaches of Malibu or Maui, in his world, won’t be put off by a bit of sharp rhetoric, the few thousand jobs he intends to eliminate at U.S. national parks and the mining he hopes to allow near national attractions.

The fear and unease in the travel industry, though, is vast. Many are concerned that the malcontent could manifest itself for years to come and that the wealthy and important clientele from overseas will stay away for several years, preferring instead to explore other countries as well. And that they will learn that other countries, too, serve tasty cocktails on breathtaking natural beaches with warm surf.

"Tourism is a business based on trust,” says Jukka Laitamaki, a professor of tourism and hospitality in New York. Vacationers usually pay in advance, trusting that the flight, hotel room or rental car will be available as promised. "Above all, people rely on having a good time undisturbed and returning home safe and sound.” This trust, it would seem, has been deeply shaken.

But what is to be done? Just write off the season? Pray that Trump sees the light and changes his tune? Hope for the soccer World Cup in 2026 and the Olympic Games in 2028, both of which are set to take place in the United States?

It’s one of those gloriously refreshing early summer Atlantic mornings in Cape Coral in southwestern Florida when Marco Wischmeier climbs into a Fiat 500 with an oversized cartoon image on the door to start his daily rounds: Greeting guests, making sure the cleaning crew has done its job and generally ensuring that everything is shipshape. Wischis Florida Home doesn’t just rent out his three properties but also manages several dozen others. Wischmeier also buys, sells and builds homes for customers – most of them German.

For many years, it was a goldmine for the 64-year-old. Cape Coral and neighboring Fort Myers are full of German tourists who have graduated from Mallorca and don’t mind the 10-hour flight. Very few come with the aim of brushing up on their English. Instead, they head over to Disney World and NASA Space Center at Cape Canaveral, have a bratwurst for lunch and head to Heidi’s German Restaurant for dinner.

Before he moved here permanently, Wischmeier was part of the German crowds, coming here on vacation with his family every year. He bought his first house in Florida in 2003, adding two more in 2008 after prices collapsed due to the real estate and financial crisis. When he was unable to find a cleaning and property management service to his liking, he started his own, initially helping to look after the houses of friends and obtaining a broker’s license. Wischmeier says he used to fly to Florida seven to nine times a year – before moving there with his family in 2011 when all the travel grew too stressful.

He has seen and experienced a lot during his time in Florida, replacing a number of roofs following the catastrophic hurricanes in recent years: Helene, Milton, Ian – Wischmeier can recite the names like an incantation. Not to mention the pandemic and all the cancellations and travel bans that came with it. It all cost a fair amount of money, he says. The insurance policies for some properties are hardly affordable anymore, he says.

He has plenty of wiggle room saved up from the good years – enough, he says, "to keep things going for two years without renting a single house.” But does he want to? At his age? Can he put up with Trump’s chaos for that long?

His first priority is getting through the current season. Wischmeier’s bookings have dropped by a quarter. "But I also got permission from all my homeowners to lower prices to boost business.” He hopes that will help on the short term and convince a few "penny pinchers” to make a reservation.

But if the so-called snowbirds – the Canadians, for example, who fly to Florida to get a bit of sun during the cold, winter months – don’t show up, things will get more difficult. Very few vacation homeowners make a profit with rentals, but they also cannot afford for their properties to sit empty for extended periods of time. "The costs are just too high,” says Wischmeier. So what does he plan to do? He shrugs. "In all my years here, I’ve never experienced such a situation.”

Two of the costs Wischmeier is talking about are Joe and Kim Cass, standing in their work outfits in front of "Key West Sunset,” a canary-yellow villa with three bedrooms, a pool and a boat dock where Friedrich Merz, Germany’s new chancellor, once spent a vacation with his family several years ago, as Wischmeier proudly reports. The couple takes care of the grass next to the garage and the roses at the front door – and rely on their earnings to support their four children. He and his wife work seven days a week, says Joe Cass – an ongoing struggle to make ends meet in an environment where everything is getting more expensive.

That could soon change. He and his wife take care of the yards of around 20 homes, but six of them are currently for sale, says Cass. The situation in the U.S. has simply become too uncertain for the owners, many of them from Europe, he says. "But when they sell, there is no guarantee that I will still be able to take care of the yard.”

Stability, he adds, has always been worth something to his customers. And in the future? He shrugs. Better to avoid talking about politics and Trump, for whom 59 percent of the people here voted. "We don’t know what’s in store for us.”

Four time zones, 6,200 kilometers and 75 hours by car away, in Fairbanks, at the northern end of the U.S., the Alaskan wilderness begins at the boat landing behind Reinhard Neuhauser’s house. "Look, a bald eagle,” he says, pointing to a bush on the banks of the Chena River where one of the great birds is perched as if on command. There’s a beaver dam up there, he says, where fish tend to congregate, attracting the eagles, says Neuhauser, 45. When he approaches in his boat, the majestic eagle spreads its wings and takes off, circling above the landscape.

It is moments like these that led Neuhauser, a native of Austria, to fall in love with Alaska 21 years ago. He came as an exchange student – and never went home. With just $6,000 in startup capital, he founded his company and has since expanded it to become one of the leading tour operators in Fairbanks. Last year, around 5,000 people booked tours with Neuhauser’s company, more than ever before.

Alaska is a popular destination for people from all over the world: Germans, Canadians, Asians and even Americans themselves. Business booms even in winter, thanks to ice fishing, dogsledding and, especially, the aurora borealis, the polar lights that can be seen here so clearly. For $199, tourists can admire the northern lights, fish for salmon and eat their catch on the ice in one of the huts Neuhauser designed himself, with panoramic windows, heating and a place to cook.

Neuhauser pushes the control level forward and the boat accelerates into the solitude – toward the snow-covered mountains on the horizon and the islands in the river where he loves to fish, barbecue and relax with his family on the weekends. "Business was crazy,” he says. "But then, in February, it suddenly collapsed.” A third of his revenue is gone.

More than 3 million visitors come to Alaska in a normal season, bringing in $3.9 billion and providing 48,000 jobs. Tourism was recently on the verge of displacing the state’s fishery as the second-most important sector of the economy, right behind the oil and natural gas industry.

Now, the slowing stream of visitors is even making itself felt in the elegant Candlewood Suites. Hotel manager Lloyd Huskey, in his mid-60s, points to a table on his computer screen showing that his hotel has only been 66 percent full since the beginning of the year on average. In 2024, it was 87 percent at this point in the year. And because management has cut rates, turnover has taken a hit, with the hotel bringing in only $1.5 million instead of the normal $2.5 million. Hardly surprising, says Huskey: "No one feels safe to travel.”

New York and San Francisco are tired of just watching events take their course. On the East Coast this year, the number of international guests is expected to be 17 percent lower than initial projections while the West Coast is forecast to host 9 percent fewer visitors than in 2024. Trump has especially scared away the LGBTQ+ community, which can immediately be felt in what are likely the two most liberal cities in the U.S. – especially in June, Pride Month. For that reason, the heads of tourism for both New York and San Francisco, Julie Coker and Anna Marie Presutti, decided independently of each other to travel to Europe to drum up business, both making their trips earlier this month.

Coker spoke about New York’s current campaign in a conversation in a five-star hotel in Frankfurt. Called "With Love + Liberty,” it sounds a lot like a direct response to Trump. New York, she says, is the most tolerant destination for people from the LGBTQ+ community – for homosexuals, for queer and transgender people. And it should stay that way, says Coker, even if that might be difficult to believe given the current political climate. "I hope that our guests have a long memory,” she says. "We are more than just the current headlines.”

Coker has been working in the industry for more than 30 years. She says that New York has always managed to bring the tourists back, even after the terror attacks on the World Trade Center and after the financial crisis. The city has "continually reinvented itself and always come out even stronger,” as she describes it. She hopes that will hold true after the current crisis as well.

Anna Marie Presutti, Coker’s counterpart from San Francisco, has adopted an attitude of forced optimism. Her itinerary includes stops in London and Berlin, and she is also focused on LGBTQ+ travelers. If they do plan to travel to the U.S. this year, she says, she hopes they will make a stop in San Francisco. The LGBTQ+ community has "always demonstrated that it is unafraid to stand up for their rights and for what they believe in.” San Francisco, she insists, "is a safe place. We welcome everybody.”

The fact that she even has to say such things says a lot about how things currently stand in the U.S. But for San Francisco in particular, there is a lot at stake.

Following the coronavirus pandemic, the city struggled with a homelessness crisis and a drug epidemic, creating years of negative headlines, falling housing prices, temporarily rising crime rates and a city center that lost its vibrancy. Presutti says the city has since recovered, and initially, they had hoped to achieve visitor numbers on par with those prior to all the crises. Now, though, it might be years before that happens: "2027 at the earliest.” That means there will be less money coming into the city which translates into fewer investments. The crises are continuing, she says – thanks to Trump. "It takes years to build an image. And just a couple of tweets to destroy it.”

In an attempt to address the problem, Presutti and Coker recently traveled to Washington, D.C., with their counterparts from a number of large American cities to meet with lawmakers and cabinet members to lobby for policy changes and, especially, a change in tone. To no avail. "I was shocked,” says Presutti, "how little attention most people in Washington pay to tourism. How little they know about how important our industry is.”

And this despite the statistics: Last year, the United States received more than 72 million visitors from abroad. The tourism industry employs 18 million people, a third more than the manufacturing industry. Now, though, economists at both Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are forecasting that the U.S. GDP, already stagnating, could lose 0.3 percentage points if the tourism sector doesn’t soon recuperate. That equates to the gigantic sum of $71 billion being taken out of the economy because restaurant tables aren’t being reserved, city tours are going unbooked, Broadway tickets are lying unsold and service personnel are losing work.

According to a recent analysis performed by the European Central Bank, there is also another part of the story. Consumers are "very willing to actively move away from U.S. products and services.” Tourism, says Laitamaki, the tourism professor, is an international industry. "There are a lot of alternatives these days.”

In the Museum of Tomorrow in Rio de Janeiro, a futuristic building on a pier jutting out into Guanabara Bay, Marcelo Freixo can hardly contain his glee at the annual meeting of Brazilian tourism executives. The number of air travelers, visitors from abroad, revenues and profits – all the key indicators from the Ministry of Tourism, and from the Tourism Board he leads, are trending in the same direction: Upward. Thanks to the unwitting assistance from Washington, 2025 is likely to be a record year for tourism in Brazil. Freixo believes his country will receive a boost from travelers who had originally intended to visit the United States. "Who wants to travel to a country that is hostile to foreigners?” he asks. In Brazil, he says, visitors can expect "alegria.”

The word basically means the love of life, coupled with unbounded optimism. That may not be reflected by the living situations of the people in the country. But Brazil’s image in the world is more shaped by the exuberant, colorful images from Carnival. And that is what Freixo hopes to build on.

The upswing has already become readily apparent in Rio. Mayor Eduardo Paes says that a million international visitors already came to the city in the first three months of the year, a 52 percent increase over the same time period last year. That includes a 60 percent increase in visitors from the U.S., 30 percent from Germany and 40 percent from the UK. And to attract travelers, Paes says, Rio hasn’t even had to actively position itself as an alternative to New York or Los Angeles. Currently, all that is necessary is to draw attention to "the city’s own strengths and beauty.”

Does that mean that Trump is going to plunge his own tourism industry into a years-long crisis?

"Travel isn’t political,” says Tilo Krause-Dünow, who is still relying on the Germans’ unquenched desire to visit America. Recently returned from the West Coast, his face is tanned and his sleeves rolled up as he sits at a table in the conference room in the offices of Canusa, located in Hamburg. For over 40 years, Krause-Dünow, the owner and founder of the North American tour operator, has been sending U.S. enthusiasts across the Atlantic. He has lived through a lot of America’s ups and downs. "Each time, I thought things were about to get challenging for us,” says Krause-Dünow. But "from event to event,” he has become more complaisant, he says.

Experience has taught him that his customers’ appetite for travel only drops briefly at most. His company’s booking numbers returned to normal within just a year after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The same is true this time around as well: After initial uncertainty, passengers are again enthusiastically boarding U.S.-bound planes again, he says. Demand, which fell in the spring, is recovering he says. "The U.S. simply exerts a powerful attraction.”

The weak dollar, the Germans’ reliable yearning for America – is that enough to get the tourism industry through the crisis? Or are they just straws to grasp at – straws which might ultimately break?

A few answers can be found in the basement of a building on Hardenbergstrasse in Berlin. Here, in the Historical Archive on Tourism belonging to the Technical University of Berlin, there are piles of posters, maps books and magazines – more than 15,000 objects – that also help explain the Germans’ fixation on America.

Before World War II, the few travelers that crossed the ocean usually went by ship, mostly to visit family members living on the other side of the Atlantic. Vacation travel only really arrived during the German Economic Miracle in the 1950s and '60s, fueled by all kinds of marketing. Hollywood films, American music, blue jeans and Coca-Cola shaped the German view of the U.S. – creating a widespread desire for the "American way of life.”

It was the promise of freedom, prosperity and unlimited possibilities that motivated the Germans to travel to the United States, says Andreas Jüttemann, head of the tourism archive. The Congress for Cultural Freedom, which was secretly funded by the CIA, and the United States Information Agency (USIA), the cultural organization founded in 1953, did their part to fuel the trend, also supporting until 1969 the anchoring of American ideas on the economy, state and society in West Germany. With success: "Many Germans knew more about the United States than they did about Lower Franconia.”

In 1982, German pop star Udo Jürgens released the anthem to go along with the phenomenon: "Ich war noch niemals in New York” – "I’ve never been to New York.” The U.S. became a place where many young Germans went to study abroad, to work as au pairs, for internships or even to study at university. Later, they wanted to take their children to the U.S. to share their experiences – and booked summer vacations in the States.

It was a time when tourists weren’t just extremely welcome in the U.S., but the country also believed they could serve a greater good. In order to spread the American worldview across the globe, it was helpful to have an army of people who had visited the country. Around the time of the fall of the Berlin Wall, the U.S. even eliminated the visa requirement for German travelers – so that all those from former East Germany could also visit Manhattan and the Golden Gate Bridge.

Four decades later, Jüttemann believes, the excitement surrounding America has been exhausted in many respects. Of course the "Trump wound is still extremely fresh.” But when it comes to vacation, "the Germans forgive a lot.” As such, he doesn’t believe the turn away from the U.S. only has to do with the new administration in Washington. In general, he says, the Germans have become "more critical” than they were in the 20th century. "We have grown less fascinated by the cheeseburger culture. We see more of the social ills in the U.S. Everything seems less and less like a fairytale land.” The much higher prices for hotels and restaurants have also done their part, he says.

So is Trump perhaps merely the most recent symptom of a far larger crisis? Are we witnessing the end of a long, intense friendship?

It is a question that Eva and Jim Tantillo are also considering as they sit on the veranda of their bed and breakfast on the island of Maui. They opened their first lodging on the Hawaiian island more than 30 years ago, and they have lovingly run the place since then, expanding and remodeling it in the process. "The core of our business is trust,” says Eva Tantillo. "Part of that is always being there for our guests, no matter what is going on.”

The Tantillos are also facing a shortage of guests. May and June have produced only half of their usual number of bookings, says Eva Tantillo. "A catastrophe.”

Aside from their own economic difficulties, however, she and Jim are more bothered by the broader political atmosphere. People are drifting further and further away from each other, they say.

Daniel Schubert is sitting at the table as well. Originally from Germany, he is a regular guest. He met his wife, an American, in Hawaii. Today, he operates the website hawaii.de, a platform he claims is the largest German-language travel agency for the archipelago. He flew in for a few weeks in an attempt to save his business. Germany is the most important European market for Hawaii, but Schubert has seen his business shrink by a third. He, too, is wondering: Will the German-American crisis be over in a few months? Or will it last?

The group starts talking about the good old days – back when everything used to be a bit smaller, a bit more tranquil and relaxed. And, above all, more equitable. But now? Jim points up the hill to where he says talk show queen Oprah Winfrey has one of her many sinfully expensive properties on Maui. A couple of miles down the coast, says Eva, pointing to the ocean, is the villa belonging to Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. "He even has his bodyguards patrol the beach so that no tourists walk by.” Even as locals have to spend more and more every year to make ends meet and can hardly afford their own island, Maui is being commercialized. "Just like all the nice things in this country.”

The table falls silent, the group deep in thought about America. And the world.

The constant mantra of "higher, faster, farther” was always a source of fascination for the Germans, as was unbridled capitalism, the striving for one’s own happiness. Is that fascination now transforming into repulsion because the situation has become so grotesque, the abuses all too obvious? And not just since this president’s election?

Schubert can only give his friends a glimmer of hope. "For Europeans, a trip to Hawaii is an absolute dream vacation. For most, it’s a once-in-a-lifetime experience,” he says. "All the stars have to be perfectly alligned.” Which means, he believes, that many are merely delaying their trip, planning to celebrate their 70th birthday instead of their 65th in Hawaii, Schubert says. "Maui,” he says, "will still be there.”

As will America. Whatever it might look like.