June was the month of two-week crises. It began with the Trump administration’s immigration raids in Los Angeles, which touched off protests and the unusual deployment of US Marines in an American city. By mid-June, just as tensions were ebbing in LA, Israel and Iran began exchanging missile fire, culminating in US strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities.

In both cases, all parties stepped back from the brink. But these events have left their mark, and must now factor into the fashion industry’s already highly uncertain outlook. Both crises could quickly flare up again: Trump has already threatened to ramp up immigration enforcement in US cities, and the June 24 ceasefire between Israel and Iran is fragile.

It’s not just retailers factoring the news into their planning. Consumers are paying attention too, and nothing puts people off shopping like the constant drumbeat of unrest, war and an energy crisis. For evidence, just look at the euro area, where consumer confidence still hasn’t returned to levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Today, we’ve launched our latest Executive Memo, where senior correspondent Sheena Butler-Young digs into what’s weighing on the minds of today’s consumers, and how to engage with newly reluctant shoppers. And if you’re in London on July 3, please join me, Sheena and chief sustainability correspondent Sarah Kent for a discussion about selling to consumers in uncertain times. You can learn more and RSVP here.

Brian Baskin, Executive, The Business of Fashion

The story: For nearly two weeks Israel and Iran traded missile barrages, culminating in US strikes on Tehran’s nuclear programme and a fragile ceasefire.

Interesting Times: And for the umpteenth time this year, the fashion industry is left wondering how to adjust for the previously unthinkable, and to prepare for a future that feels increasingly unknowable. The conflict played out just across the water from some of fashion’s hottest consumer markets, though aside from some cancelled flights it was mostly business as usual in the Gulf States.

While a peace deal has held for nearly a week, were it to falter, Tehran could inflict near-instant economic pain by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas passes.

Along with Trump’s reciprocal tariffs — which are still set to kick in on July 9 — and the still simmering immigration crisis in the US, Iran is yet another variable for fashion’s CFOs and supply chain managers to factor into their forecasts as they plan back to school and holiday orders.

Stick to the Plan: Times like these reward companies that have an authentic connection with their customers. Consumers no longer want to see brands posting vapidly about current events, if they ever did. Stocking the right products — such as adding more affordable items into the mix — and providing a warm, engaging shopping experience will win more loyalty than pandering Instagram messages ever could.

The story: Kering appointed auto executive Luca de Meo as CEO, marking the biggest and most surprising of several shakeups at the top of major fashion or beauty companies. Other notable exits include Prada brand CEO Gianfranco D’Attis, Glossier CEO Kyle Leahy, Bata footwear group’s Sandeep Kataria and Dior creative director Maria Grazia Chiuri.

A Fresh Start: Kering desperately needed a change and hired an executive with experience turning around troubled brands to make it happen (de Meo’s successes include fixing Fiat and Renault). That has worked out well for Gap Inc., where CEO Richard Dickson is applying lessons learned reviving Mattel, and Burberry, where a back to basics approach by former Coach chief Joshua Schulman looks promising.

Not all of the comings and goings are down to poor performance by the previous regime. In some cases, the qualities needed in happier times aren’t what’s required when new market dynamics are introduced. This is especially true on the creative side, where Jonathan Anderson’s menswear show last week kicked off a slew of designer debuts intended to reposition storied brands for a challenging moment.

Fixing the Unfixable: In other cases, adaptation isn’t the point. Glossier’s Leahy made smart moves, including entering Sephora and introducing popular fragrances. But it was always going to take more than that to live up to the expectations set by its onetime $1.8 billion valuation.

Also potentially vulnerable is Victoria’s Secret’s Hillary Super. While her job is secure for now, an activist investor is arguing to abandon her efforts to modernise the brand and instead return to the glory days of bras and Angels.

Is there an executive out there who could save either brand? Perhaps. But when things are truly bleak, sometimes companies go with the hatchetman, not the turnaround expert.

The story: Meta is reportedly planning to make it possible for brands to implement their entire ad strategy, from content creation to targeting, using AI.

Changing Mores: It was only a few short months ago that H&M sparked a fierce debate over its announcement it would use AI-generated models in some social media ads. A sign of just how quickly things can change? Meta’s plans were met with, if not shrugs, a certain resigned acceptance.

It helps that AI content is becoming common enough that its use no longer provokes mass outrage (when it’s noticed at all). But there are financial incentives for joining the AI revolution, too. Advertising on social media is getting cheaper, and the results better, partially reversing years of worsening metrics on both fronts. AI is expected to extend both trends, lowering costs by automating labour and improving performance with more precise targeting.

Striking the Right Balance: Brands have learned their lesson after overdoing it with performance marketing in the 2010s, the last time Instagram ads were cheap. Survivors of that era, including Everlane, Rothy’s and Bonobos, are making new investments in brand marketing, even as their successors give old-fashioned social media ads a new look.

The answer lies somewhere in the middle – build a brand consumers like and then make sure everyone knows about it. Hardly revolutionary, but it’s a lesson that got lost somewhere in the last decade.

Tough Choices: Finding that balance is easier said than done in a tough economy where consumers are being more careful about the sort of impulse buys Instagram ads are built to inspire. As marketing budgets tighten, brands will have to decide where to invest and where to cut.

The Story: Jewellery sales continue to grow, even as consumers spend less in most other luxury categories.

Good Timing: Jewellers’ good fortune partly comes down to luck — luxury brands spent the last few years hiking prices on handbags and ready to wear, and are now bearing the brunt of consumers’ frustration. Consumers also turn to hard luxury as an investment during inflationary times, believing gold and diamonds will hold their value or just feel “worth it” in a way that a $10,000 handbag doesn’t.

Remembering the Little Guy: Big jewellery brands also still have plenty of items that appeal to aspirational customers. As Bain’s Claudia d’Arpizio told BoF’s Simone Stern Carbone, “you can buy a Cartier bracelet for around €1,000. There are no handbags available for that price anymore.”

On Trend: There’s more to the boom than price. Jewellery offers a way to show a little flair in an age of minimalism, and personality in a time of social media imposed conformity. Big brands also aren’t as dominant in jewellery as in other categories, creating openings for emerging designers to find their customers (and when you’re pricing on request, you don’t need to find that many customers).

Is It Sustainable?: Another side effect of all that geopolitical uncertainty is that it tends to send gold prices shooting higher, which will hit small brands hardest (some are already pivoting to non-precious metals, resins and other unconventional fine jewellery materials).

While it’s the $20,000 hamburger rings that are going viral, brands will also need to keep the far larger pool of shoppers buying the €1,000 bracelets top of mind. Luxury fashion brands thought they didn’t need those customers, and look what happened to them.

The story: It was an unusually active month in the formerly frozen beauty start-up space, with multiple acquisitions, buyouts and relaunches. L’Oréal purchased British skincare brand Medik8 and men’s personal care line Dr. Squatch sold to Unilever. Huda Kattan bought back TSG’s minority stake in Huda Beauty and Beautycounter is relaunching as Counter after founder Gregg Renfrew bought the brand back. E.l.f.’s $1 billion acquisition of Rhode was technically in May, but we’ll include it here.

Peaking at the Right Time: Some of these deals represent dream exits, others retrenchment. The dividing line is somewhere in early 2022: brands that peaked before then, including Huda Beauty and Beautycounter, secured eye-popping valuations that they could never live up to, incentivising short-term decision-making designed to clear the way for an exit that was never going to happen (Glossier fits in this camp as well).

Brands whose popularity surged after the start-up slump were instead steered towards achieving profitability sooner, even if that meant growing at a slower pace. Another differentiator is makeup versus skincare; the former is still seen as too trend-driven and therefore too risky an investment, while skin as a category is viewed as having more enduring appeal.

After the Deal: The new start-up model has its own challenges. Potential buyers are looking for signs a brand has developed an engaged and loyal customer base that won’t vanish as soon as the ink is dry on the deal. For more on this, check out our latest case study, “The New Rules for Getting Acquired.”

The best-case scenario looks a lot like Puig’s 2022 acquisition of Byredo. The fragrance brand has continued to grow under its new owner and has expanded into new categories, including leather goods and jewellery. Founder Ben Gorham said this month he’s stepping down; he’s clearly leaving the brand in good hands.