ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040959 SPC AC 040959 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement through day 6 (Sunday), in terms of large-scale features. Substantial divergence begins thereafter, casting substantial uncertainty into the forecast beyond the upcoming weekend. Day 4, as an upper short-wave trough crossing the Northeast moves into/across the Canadian Maritimes, the quasi-zonal flow pattern over the U.S. will continue. Weak amplification of the flow will occur over the West with time, however, as a short-wave trough moves across the Rockies. As this occurs, frontal low development is expected along the persistent west-to-east front lying from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, with only weak instability expected near the developing low, and eastward along the front, convection is forecast to remain disorganized. Day 5, the upper wave is forecast to continue eastward across the central and northern Plains through the day, and into and across the Great Lakes region overnight. The associated frontal low -- initially progged to lie over the Oklahoma vicinity, will deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with time, reaching the northeast through the end of the period. The trailing surface front will sharpen and advance southeastward, extending from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward to coastal Texas late. While showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with the frontal advance, weak instability anticipated at this time should again hinder convective intensity. Day 6, as the low moves offshore and the front continues advancing steadily southeastward, it should clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the evening, lingering only across Florida through the end of the period. The continued trend of weak instability, as well as weakening flow with southward extent, should hinder prospects for more robust convection. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT