ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 162139 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z In the mid-levels, a large upper cyclone will settle over the eastern 2/3rds of the US as a strong Arctic air mass moves into the lower 48. Well below-average temperatures and widespread winter precipitation are expected to negate fire-weather potential through much of next week. However, the arrival of the Arctic air mass will allow strong high pressure to intensify over the Great Basin. This could support offshore flow and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions over parts of southern CA early next week. ...Southern CA... As the Arctic air mass intrudes the CONUS, ridging is forecast to intensify over the eastern Pacific late this weekend through midweek next week. As a result, high pressure should quickly intensify over the Great Basin, tightening offshore pressure gradients over southern CA. A shortwave trough is also forecast to move east of the upper ridge and deepen as it moves over parts of the Southwest D5/Mon. Model solutions have come into better agreement showing this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D5/Mon through D7/Wed. Ongoing very dry conditions, in combination with increasing potential for moderate offshore winds lend enough confidence to introduce 40% areas for D5/Mon and D6/Tues. Offshore winds could extended into D8/Thurs and beyond, but models still show considerable variability in the evolution of the relevant upper-air features. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT