It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Pacific-Oregon State prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Pacific Oregon State.
The Oregon State Beavers have taken a wrong turn this season. They were 6-3 in the West Coast Conference through their first nine games in their new league, which they joined as a consequence of the Pac-12's implosion subsequent reorganization. They were doing a decent job of handling the transition into a new situation this year. However, in their last four games, they have lost their edge. Oregon State beat Gonzaga and looked like a really good team for portions of the month of January. The Beavers lost only three nonconference games in November and December and carried that solid form into the new year, but in recent weeks, Oregon State has seemingly not been able to maintain the same energy and focus which characterized the team earlier in the season. OSU has lost three of four games. The team is now 7-6 in the West Coast Conference, in the middle of the league standings. OSU is a non-factor in the WCC race, a real disappointment given how promising the season looked four weeks ago.
Pacific: +14.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +920
Oregon State: -14.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -1800
Over: 135.5 (-115)
Under: 135.5 (-105)
Time: 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN Plus
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Oregon State is going in the wrong direction. Not only have the Beavers lost three of four; they have looked really, really bad in those three recent losses. OSU got crushed at Gonzaga (the Beavers won at home versus GU earlier in the season but did not show up for the rematch in Spokane). The Beavers scored just 49 points at home in a decisive loss to Saint Mary's. Then Oregon State suffered a 12-point loss to Portland. The Beavers were 12.5-point favorites, -1000 on the moneyline, and lost badly. This is an Oregon State team which should not be trusted at all right now.
Compare OSU to Pacific, which is 4-10 in the WCC but has won three of five and is showing signs of real improvement. Pacific swept Washington State this season and just won by 25 points at Loyola Marymount. Pacific is playing better than Oregon State and is still getting 14.5 points? It sounds too good to be true … almost.
The Beavers are at home. They are embarrassed and humiliated after their atrocious performance against Portland. This team has been bad for the better part of the past two weeks. You know that head coach Wayne Tinkle is going to get after his players and demand a much better performance. This is a get-right game for OSU against a Pacific team which is 4-10 in the West Coast Conference. A brief improvement by the Tigers doesn't mean they will be consistently good. A few good games doesn't mean Pacific has somehow engineered a true transformation. It's more like a minor blip on the radar screen, a bad team having a few good games within a generally subpar season. This team will regress back to the mean. Trust Oregon State.
Our lean is to Pacific, but as is usually the case when we pick the inferior team due to the spread being uncomfortably large, that's a situation in which we're not confident enough to entrust our money to a bad team. If you asked us which way we would lean if we absolutely had to make a pick, it's Pacific, but part of the point about betting is that no, you're not forced to bet on anything. Our official recommendation is to pass, and maybe wait for the right live-play angle if it surfaces.
