It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Oregon State-San Francisco prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Oregon State-San Francisco.
The Oregon State Beavers made a very big statement on Thursday night in the West Coast Conference. They didn't merely cover the plus-9.5-point spread against the Gonzaga Bulldogs; they won the game outright, scoring 97 points against Mark Few's team. The game was a sellout in Corvallis's Gill Coliseum. OSU had trouble selling out the place for Pac-12 home games versus opponents other than Oregon, but the Beavers filled the old building for Gonzaga in the WCC. The freshness of the matchup, combined with the opportunity to play a big-time program located in the Pacific Northwest, created an exciting atmosphere on the Oregon State campus. The West Coast Conference spiced up the Beavers' season.
The performance against Gonzaga flavored it even more.
Michael Rataj scored 29 points and Nate Kingz added 20 for the Beavers, who scored consistently from all areas of the floor against the GU defense. The Beavers shot over 58 percent from the field, nearly 50 percent from 3-point range, and made 29 of 37 free throws. They got to the foul line. They created good shot attempts. They were efficient. They committed only 9 turnovers. They did everything well on offense and outgunned Gonzaga in overtime.
Oregon State's win dropped Gonzaga to 5-1 in the WCC, half a game behind 5-0 Saint Mary's. Oregon State's win kept the Beavers in the WCC title chase, 1.5 games behind Saint Mary's at 4-2. Had the Beavers lost, they would have been 3-3 and, for all intents and purposes, out of the title race. This win enabled OSU to remain one of six teams in the WCC with two or fewer losses in league play. That group of six is still alive for a title chance; the rest of the league has four or more losses and is essentially out of the running.
Now comes an obvious test for Oregon State: Can the Beavers quickly reset and find enough physical energy and emotional juice to go on the road and play a very capable San Francisco team? The Dons are not relentlessly consistent, but they can be good at times. USF is 15-5 with wins over Boise State, Saint Louis, and Santa Clara. The Dons lost a close game to Memphis and a competitive game versus Washington State. If they're on, they're hard to deal with. Oregon State has to move past the Gonzaga win and reset. The Beavers have to have enough in the tank for a Saturday game after being extended into overtime on Thursday.
Oregon State: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +120
San Francisco: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -144
Over: 139.5 (-110)
Under: 139.5 (-110)
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Time: 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN Plus
Oregon State is a better team than San Francisco. The Beavers have better wins than the Dons and have shown more upside than USF over the course of the full season. San Francisco lost by 23 to Santa Clara (the Dons have played the Broncos twice, splitting the two games). Oregon State just beat Gonzaga and will be soaring with confidence in this game.
This is simply a great spot for USF. Oregon State will be drained after playing overtime against Gonzaga. It took everything out of the Beavers, who now have to jump on a plane for a quick turnaround — one day off dedicated to travel — and play a road game 48 hours after the biggest home game of the year. San Francisco is waiting to jump all over OSU here.
The spot is great for USF, so that's the lean here, but OSU might be the better team, so our official recommendation is to wait for a live play. Maybe Oregon State goes up 10-5 in the first few minutes. You could get USF at an even better moneyline price.