Only Double-Digit GDP Growth Can Transform Zambia — Haabazoka

…current growth rates just won’t cut it

By Amb. Anthony Mukwita

27 May 2025

Hot FM lived up to its name this morning as one of Zambia’s leading economists, Dr. Lubinda Haabazoka, delivered a no-nonsense economic blueprint for poverty reduction and long-term stability.

Speaking with trademark bluntness, Haabazoka dismissed the upbeat forecasts often pushed by politicians and so-called economic “soothsayers.”

His core message? Only double-digit GDP growth—between 10 to 20 percent annually—can produce real change for ordinary Zambians.

“Forget everything else. If we truly want to reduce poverty, the economy must grow in double digits. That’s how the Asian Tigers did it,” he said.

“Expecting transformation at 6 percent growth is wishful thinking. And let’s be clear—getting to double digits won’t happen overnight. It takes time.”

Haabazoka stressed the importance of policy continuity across administrations, urging leaders not to discard sound economic plans simply because they were conceived by previous governments.

In a statement likely to ignite debate, he gave the current government an 80 percent performance score—not for growth, but for instilling financial discipline.

“There’s more fiscal restraint now than under the previous administration, which plunged us into a debt trap,” he said.

Still, he acknowledged the former government’s role in using borrowed funds to deliver much-needed infrastructure—roads, hospitals, and bridges—that had been neglected since independence.

The economist praised the Hichilema administration for staying focused on economic fundamentals but called for urgent reforms, especially in energy and public finance.

“Government has restructured 95 percent of debt and shortened supplier payment periods. The downside is a visible liquidity crunch—you can feel it.

There’s less money in circulation,” he noted. “While painful now, it may help curb inflation in the long run.”

However, he decried Zambia’s sky-high interest rates, which hover around 34 percent, calling them untenable. “Rates must come down if we want people to borrow, invest, and drive GDP growth.”

Haabazoka urged the government to foster an enabling environment for job creation, small business growth, and export expansion—critical for boosting dollar earnings and strengthening the kwacha.

On agriculture, he predicted a sharp drop in maize meal prices, citing a bumper harvest of 3.6 million tonnes, thanks to good rains and consistent subsidies.

In energy, he encouraged President Hichilema to liberalize the sector by allowing private off-takers to supply directly to the national grid. “We can’t keep depending solely on ZESCO, which has underperformed,” he warned.

He also cautioned that load shedding won’t end soon, given Zambia’s surging population, projected to hit 30 million by 2030.

“More households mean more demand for electricity—which remains scarce despite the previous government doubling generation capacity from 1,200 MW between 2011 and 2020.”

These, dear readers, are just a few highlights from today’s economic masterclass by Prof. Haabazoka.

I may not agree with everything—but it certainly made for compelling listening, Yusuf Dodia on Diamond TV Online yesterday as we draw close to the polls in HOT FM Zambia

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My book signing event, my latest instalment ‘China in Africa the Zambia story’, a must geopolitical take is on this weekend 31 May at East Park Mall, Grey Matter new funky store. I will sign a copy 😊 for you. It’s between 10-12pm.

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Catch the full conversation on Hot FM’s Facebook page.

Amb. Anthony Mukwita is a published author and international relations analyst.