A new Commission Communication assesses whether zero emission heavy duty vehicles (HDV) are entering the market as expected at the time of adopting Regulation (EU) 2023/1804 (AFIR) and whether the mandatory infrastructure deployment targets for HDV for the year 2030 as stipulated under AFIR are in line with the expected vehicle uptake.

The zero emission HDV vehicle fleet by 2030 is estimated to be in the range of 410,000-600,000 zero emission HDV with up to 90% of those vehicles being battery electric vehicles. This estimation is based on extensive market research and stakeholder consultations and reflects the legal requirements of the revised CO2 emission performance standards for new heavy-duty vehicles.

Relevant drive-train technologies have matured at different speed since the adoption of AFIR. OEMs clearly see the priority of their investment in battery-electric drivetrains. By the end of 2024, already more than 100 battery electric models were available in series or small series production. They are suited for all use cases and throughout all vehicle segments, including for trucks above 7.5 t. 20 hydrogen fuel cell models were available in small series production, with first models with hydrogen combustion engines coming into the market in 2025. Announced vehicle models equally show much larger numbers for battery electric vehicles throughout all market segments.

With regards to dedicated recharging infrastructure and hydrogen refuelling infrastructure the communication concludes that the mandatory targets set under AFIR along the TEN-T network and in urban nodes provide around 50% of the expected necessary infrastructure by 2030. This is in line with the overall AFIR logic that aims at ensuring a basic network covering the full main transport corridors and all urban nodes on which basis market forces shall deliver infrastructure where additional demand exists.

The communication concludes that zero emission HDV are now available in series production for all use cases and vehicle segments. It is evident that at least in the initial phase the market will be largely dominated by battery electric vehicles whereas the role of hydrogen HDV is less certain. The infrastructure deployment targets set under AFIR are in general adequate to provide the required minimum infrastructure for the expected uptake of battery electric and hydrogen HDV. Further analysis on the targets will be carried under the Impact Assessment for the AFIR review in the course of 2026.