It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an NC State-Duke prediction and pick. Find out how to watch NC State-Duke.
The Duke Blue Devils are on track to win the ACC championship, and they are very much in the running for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils led Wake Forest by 13 points at halftime this past Saturday. Then they gave up a 23-4 run to Wake to start the second half. The Blue Devils trailed by six midway through the second half and were in big trouble. However, Duke's defense regrouped, and the Blue Devils were able to dominate down the stretch in a 63-56 win which kept Duke unbeaten in ACC play and in sole possession of first place in the conference. Duke's only losses this season were to Kansas and Kentucky. Given that Duke beat No. 1 Auburn, the Blue Devils have a substantial resume even though the ACC is not as strong as it has often been in the past. Duke just needs to continue to control the ACC. If Duke loses no more than two games from now through the ACC Tournament, it will likely enter Selection Sunday as a projected No. 1 seed in March Madness. Let's see if the Blue Devils can continue what they have started in ACC play.
North Carolina State beat Duke in the Elite Eight one year ago. The Wolfpack reached the Final Four for the first time in 41 years and raised hopes that a struggling program could become an annual factor in the ACC and establish itself as an annual NCAA Tournament team.
That hope has not been fulfilled this season. NC State has been one of the worst offensive teams in the country. The effort is there and the defensive production has been good, but the offense just can't score. NC State held a high-octane SMU offense to just 63 points this past Saturday, but the Wolfpack offense was stuck in mud, managing only 57 points. The Wolfpack and coach Kevin Keatts just can't overcome their offensive limitations, which is not a good way to go into Cameron Indoor Stadium against a Duke team intent on making a run at the Final Four this year.
NC State: +21.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +2000
Duke: -21.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -7000
Over: 134.5 (-110)
Under: 134.5 (-110)
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Time: 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN
The Wolfpack scored only 57 points against SMU, which might obviously seem like a reason to pick against them here, but NC State is not going to shoot or score that poorly in two straight games. At the very least, it will be difficult for State to be as bad against Duke as it was versus SMU. Even a little bit of improvement in a “laws of averages” kind of way should enable State to score enough to stay moderately close and ultimately cover the spread.
Duke is a far better and more talented team than NC State. It is playing at home. Also consider the point that Duke gave up a 23-4 run against Wake Forest but won by seven anyway. Imagine a game in which Duke doesn't give up a big run. The Blue Devils could — and one could easily argue, should — win by at least 20 if not more.
Our lean is to Duke, but we don't like the large spread. Maybe wait for a live play.
