Mozambique's Chapo: Dialogue or Confrontation?

Mozambique's political landscape remains deeply fractured following the contentious presidential election of October 9, 2024. While President Daniel Chapo of the ruling FRELIMO party has called for dialogue to resolve the post-election crisis, events on March 5, 2025, cast a shadow over the prospects for reconciliation. The day, intended as a "Day of Dialogue," devolved into violent clashes between protesters and police, highlighting the deep-seated tensions and accusations of election fraud that continue to plague the nation.
The unrest was triggered by a protest march led by former presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane, who claims the election was stolen from him. Mondlane, excluded from the official "Day of Dialogue," organized a "peaceful walk" through Maputo's poorer neighborhoods as a demonstration of his continued opposition. However, the situation quickly escalated, with police using tear gas and live ammunition to disperse the crowds, which included Mondlane himself.
Reports from the non-governmental organization Plataforma Decide indicate that at least 16 people, including two children, were injured in the police action. Dinis Tivane, Mondlane's spokesperson, condemned the police response as a "barbaric act against a group of citizens who were simply walking peacefully." Wilker Dias of Plataforma Decide stated that there was "absolutely no reason for the police to shoot at the people" and that the demonstration was peaceful.
Adding to the uncertainty, Venancio Mondlane has disappeared from public view since the protests, with his team reporting that they do not know his current whereabouts.
FRELIMO has governed Mozambique since its independence in 1975. Daniel Chapo, seen as a relative newcomer to the political scene, succeeded President Filipe Nyusi. While Chapo has employed conciliatory language, his opponents argue that he has not taken concrete steps to address their concerns.
Venancio Mondlane, a charismatic figure particularly popular among the country's poor, has emerged as a key opposition leader. His political journey has been marked by shifts and challenges. Initially involved with RENAMO, the former rebel movement, Mondlane was excluded from the party's leadership contest in 2023. He subsequently formed his own coalition, the Coligacao Alianca Democratica (CAD), which was later barred from participating in the elections. Ultimately, Mondlane ran as an independent candidate in the 2024 presidential election, supported by the opposition party PODEMOS.
Following the election, Mondlane has accused PODEMOS of being "bought" by the government after the party's chairman endorsed the official election results. He is now working to establish a new party, the National Alliance for an Autonomous and Free Mozambique (ANAMALALA). However, supporters report difficulties in the party's formation, including alleged irregularities in the collection of required signatures.
Political analyst Sismo Eduardo Muchaiabande believes that Mondlane, with his new party, could pose a significant challenge to FRELIMO in the next elections in 2029. Muchaiabande notes that the public has lost faith in traditional parties and is drawn to Mondlane's personality and vision.
The events of March 5, 2025, underscore the deep divisions within Mozambican society and the challenges facing President Chapo as he attempts to govern amid ongoing social unrest and accusations of election fraud. The next few years will be critical in determining whether Mozambique can overcome its political crisis and move towards a more stable and inclusive future.