Monetary policy: Will West African Central Banks take big cuts in 2025? - CNBC Africa
Signals suggest the U.S. federal reserve will cut rates twice this year as it sees inflation staying elevated and U.S. President Trump hinting the federal reserve would be much better off cutting rates as U.S. tariffs start to ease their way into the economy. Will central banks in West Africa take big cuts or maintain a cautious stance? Esili Eigbe, Director at Escap Management joins CNBC Africa for more on the monetary policy environment.
Mon, 24 Mar 2025 12:00:23 GMT
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AI Generated Summary
As signals suggest the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut rates twice this year due to elevated inflation and pressure from U.S. President Trump amid easing tariffs, the focus shifts to central banks in West Africa. With the possibility of rate cuts on the horizon, the question arises whether these banks will follow suit or opt for a more cautious approach. Esili Eigbe, Director at Escap Management, sheds light on the complex monetary policy environment. The U.S. Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts in response to persistent inflation challenges has implications for central banks in the West African region. While developed markets like the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have chosen to hold rates steady, emerging markets like Nigeria and Ghana face a decision point. Nigeria recently maintained its policy rate at 27%, and Ghana is expected to do the same. Amidst expectations of two rate cuts in the U.S., the Nigerian Monetary Policy Committee is set to convene soon to deliberate on potential adjustments. Eigbe emphasizes the importance of considering local economic dynamics in addition to global trends when determining policy actions. He underscores the need for Nigerian authorities to critically appraise inflation data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to make informed decisions. Despite government targets to reduce inflation to 15% in Nigeria and 11.9% in Ghana, achieving these goals may prove challenging if price dynamics do not align with official reports. The recent disruption in the Naira crude deal further complicates the inflation outlook, necessitating a balanced and strategic approach to monetary policy. Maintaining a cautious stance and potentially prolonging existing rate levels could be the prudent path for West African central banks amidst ongoing global uncertainties and domestic challenges. While the temptation to mirror the U.S. rate cuts may arise, a tailored and deliberate strategy taking into account local realities is crucial in navigating the monetary policy landscape in the region.
