In this piece, I will give you a few tips on how to follow and understand the current Israel-Iran war. In fact, all wars.
Central to understanding world politics in general, and war in particular, is “POWER”. You may add a little MORALITY where it serves the interest of a country. For example, recently, Donald Trump led “Global Peace Talks” as a moderator, and in his opening address, he stated:
“Good day to all esteemed leaders, visionaries, and representatives joining us today. We are here to tackle some of the most pressing challenges our world faces, and together, we aim to make history by advancing peace and stability in regions long marred by conflict.
“This is not just about resolving disputes or signing agreements; it’s about creating a roadmap for lasting harmony, mutual prosperity, and TRUST (emphasis mine)”.
Also, in his conclusion, Trump said, “Thank you, everyone, for your commitment to peace”. Interestingly, Benjamin Netanyahu was there in attendance. And he said at the conference, in response to a proposal for dividing Jerusalem for Jews and Palestinians, that:
“Jerusalem is Israel’s eternal capital, but we can consider arrangements to ensure access to holy sites for all religions. Dividing the city is not an option.”
Peace indeed, from Trump and Netanyahu. But Netanyahu provided the context in his recent speech after the United States attacked the nuclear sites of Iran. He paid tribute to Trump for living to his (Trump) popular policy of “peace through strength”.
Also, central to understanding and predicting the possible outcome of a war is: EGALITARIAN BALANCE OF TERROR. Forget about the sound of the words. Just break them into three: egalitarian (same rights), balance (almost equal power) and terror (inflicting physical or psychological damage). Thus, the concept means assessing warring countries if they have the same rights and capacity to inflict maximum damage on their adversaries.
Egalitarian is important because a country may have enormous power but not the same opportunity to use it for some reasons. Balance of power is equally important, and Meta AI defined it as:
“A situation where two or more powerful entities (usually nations) possess enough military power, especially nuclear weapons, to deter each other from attacking, as both sides would suffer catastrophic consequences.”
In assessing power, there are two major elements: tangible and intangible. Tangible elements can mostly be assessed because they are real, such as warplanes, tanks and guns. Meta AI identified the following tangible elements: military strength, economic resources, technological advancement, geographical advantage, population and demographics.
The intangible elements cannot be easily assessed because they are not as visible, and sometimes as reliable, as the tangible elements. Meta AI identified them as follows: diplomatic influence, cultural influence, leadership and governance, national morale and unity, ideological and religious influence, reputation and credibility. They are called “soft power”. But their importance should not be ignored simply because they may not be visible or cannot easily be assessed.
Finally, after applying all the guidelines, there is no guarantee that a prediction will be correct because of lack of, or, unreliable data, unforeseen circumstances, human and technical error. However, if the guidelines only help you to understand what is happening without the confidence to make intelligent predictions, to God be the glory.
For emphasis, we are talking about intelligent prediction because anybody can predict anything and may be lucky to predict it correctly based on guess work. It is about concrete facts, not moral fantasy or excess baggage of emotions.
Tribute to my lecturer
In my final year as an undergraduate at Bayero University Kano in 1985, our International Relations lecturer, Dr Bawa Hassan Gusau, now an eminent professor, made question one compulsory in our examination because of its importance in understanding world politics and war.
The question is: “Carefully distinguish between Nuclear Deterrence” and “Nuclear Arms Race”. Distinguish fully the connection that exists between the two. What are the major ways to measure “arms race”.
Question four is equally important: “Carefully delineate the essential elements of EITHER the Prisoner’s Dilemma OR the Chicken games. Discuss the outcomes that result from the choice of the strategies of your choice in conflict negotiations”.
May Allah bless Professor Gusau for making it easy for us to understand world politics and war, based on which I wrote the tips. He was my International Relations lecturer at undergraduate and postgraduate levels. And it is part of our Islamic orientation to acknowledge our teachers and what they taught us before praying for them and paying tribute to them.
Don’t mind the present generation of youth who abuse their teachers. You often hear them saying, “Shege, shi ya ba ni D”. But the truth is that if not for our teachers, we will die “jahilai”. Whoever has no respect for his teachers has become BIRI BOKO.
Granduants are told at convocations that they are awarded degrees for excelling in character and learning. And it is not by accident that character comes before learning. It is in order of importance.
Dikko resides in Abuja
