Indian equity indices opened on a positive note on Thursday, July 3, 2025, buoyed by mixed global cues and anticipation of further trade breakthroughs. This follows a previous session on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, where the NSE Nifty 50 closed 0.35% lower at 25,453 and the BSE Sensex declined 0.34% to 83,410. On Thursday morning, the Nifty 50 index began the day at 25,505.10, rising by 0.20%, and later edged higher to 25,555.20 points by 10:30 a.m. IST, marking a 0.4% rise. Similarly, the BSE Sensex opened at 83,540.74 with a 0.16% gain and further added 0.41% to 83,752.36.

Asian markets presented a mixed picture on Thursday morning. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.15% and the Topix lost 0.21%, with the Nikkei 225 index remaining flat and in the red later in the morning. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined by 0.88%, and Singapore's Straits Times index was down by 0.11%. Conversely, South Korea’s Kospi added 0.77% (later rising to 0.95%) and the small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.5%, while Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted index jumped by 0.9%.

US markets closed Wednesday’s session on a higher note, particularly after the US signed a trade deal with Vietnam. The S&P 500 index gained 0.47% to close at 6,227.42, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.94% to post a record close of 20,393.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, slipped marginally by 0.02% to 44,484.42. The US-Vietnam trade agreement, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, involves a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and 40% tariffs on trans-shipped goods via Vietnam enroute to the US, while offering 0% full market access to US goods in Vietnam. This deal has boosted expectations for further trade breakthroughs globally.

However, Indian markets remained under a 'global volatility haze,' primarily due to uncertainties surrounding a potential US-India trade deal. Market expert Ajay Bagga highlighted that while domestic factors are supportive, traders are on edge awaiting a signal on the US-India trade pact, especially with the looming US tariff deadline of July 8th. Discussions between US and Indian trade negotiators on Wednesday aimed to land a tariff-reducing deal, but some disagreements persisted. Experts anticipate potential volatility as the deadline approaches, with possibilities of postponement of reciprocal tariffs or the imposition of universal tariffs ranging from 10% to 20%.

Other key global cues influenced market sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was trading 0.05% lower at 96.69 on Thursday morning. The Indian Rupee depreciated 0.20% to close at 85.70 to the dollar on July 2. Crude oil prices continued to trade lower, with WTI crude at $67.09 (down 0.54%) and Brent crude at $68.63 (down 0.70%). Provisional data from the NSE indicated that Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) were net sellers of shares worth Rs 1,542.56 crore on July 2, 2024, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) were net buyers of shares worth Rs 2,763.07 crore on the same day. Gold prices saw consolidation near all-time highs; 24-carat gold was priced at Rs 97,720 per 10 grams, 22-carat at Rs 89,577 per 10 grams, and 18-carat at Rs 73,290. The rate of gold had surged by 0.43% in the preceding week.

On the National Stock Exchange, broader market indices opened with gains, with the Nifty 100 rising by 0.2%, Nifty Midcap 100 surging by 0.17%, and Nifty Smallcap 100 increasing by 0.19%. Among sectoral indices, Nifty IT showed the strongest performance with a 0.69% gain, followed by Nifty Auto (0.66%), Nifty Metal (0.45%), and Nifty FMCG (0.27%). Technically, the Nifty was seen consolidating a bullish rectangle breakout, with support around 25,200-25,270. Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research at Axis Securities, noted that a breach below 25,200 could risk a fall to 25,000, while a bullish trigger lies at the recent swing high of 25,670. Heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank rose 0.7% and 1% respectively, with HDFC Bank's unit and newly-listed HDB Financial jumping 4% following a strong debut. Conversely, state-run banks slipped 0.4% (e.g., Punjab National Bank fell 2.5% due to slower loan growth), Avenue Supermarts (D-mart operator) lost 3.7% after moderating sales growth, and Nykaa slid 4.3% due to early investors planning a stake sale.

Overall, Indian markets opened positively amidst global trade deal optimism but remained cautious due to the approaching US tariff deadline and potential for increased volatility, especially given Thursday's weekly derivatives expiry.