Indian benchmark equity indices, Nifty and Sensex, commenced trading on Thursday, June 26, 2025, with a positive sentiment, despite Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange initially hinting at a lower open. The Nifty50 opened near 25,300, while the BSE Sensex rose around 150 points, tracking positive global cues. By midday, the Sensex had surged over 550 points to 83,309, and the Nifty50 gained 148.20 points to trade at 25,392.55, even touching above the 25,400 mark and an 8-month high after a momentary deviation.

The primary catalyst for this market strength was the significant easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly the tenuous Israel-Iran ceasefire, which held firm. This development shifted global markets into a "risk-on" mode, reducing concerns about disruptions to the global oil trade and boosting investor confidence. While concerns remain regarding the unresolved reciprocal tariff issue, which could hinder a sustained rally, the immediate market sentiment remained broadly positive.

Global markets provided mixed yet supportive cues. US stocks took a breather on Wednesday, pausing a two-day rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling slightly, the S&P 500 ending flat, and the Nasdaq Composite adding moderate gains. The US dollar index wallowed at its lowest level since March 2022, sliding to 97.491. In commodities, oil prices inched higher, recovering from a volatile month, with Brent crude futures rising to $67.83 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gaining to $65.12 a barrel, driven by signals of firm demand from a larger-than-expected draw in US crude stocks. Gold prices also saw a slight increase, benefiting from the weakened dollar, as investors awaited US economic indicators to gauge the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates.

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued their selling streak, offloading domestic stocks worth Rs 2,427.74 crore on Wednesday, marking their third consecutive day of net selling and bringing total outflows to over Rs 9,500 crore in three sessions. This persistent selling is partly attributed to stretched Indian valuations compared to Chinese stocks, potentially reviving a 'Sell India, Buy China' strategy. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained strong buyers of Indian equities, purchasing Rs 2,372.96 crore on a net-net basis on Wednesday, and extending their buying for the third day, providing a crucial liquidity cushion that is likely to mitigate the impact of FII selling.

Market experts maintained a positive outlook. Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted that 25,000/82,000 and 25,100/82,300 would act as key support zones for Nifty and Sensex, respectively, suggesting continued bullish sentiment above these levels. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, highlighted improving sentiment and a target for Nifty towards 25,750, with immediate resistance at 25,350. Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, advocated a 'buy on dips' approach with an emphasis on stock selection, reflecting the market's resilience despite volatility.

The Nifty Bank index traded in a narrow band but managed to hold above its short-term moving averages, signaling steady progress. Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, identified an immediate hurdle near 57,000 and support at 56,200, recommending a 'buy on dip' strategy. Bajaj Broking added that Bank Nifty formed a doji candle, signaling consolidation, and is set to retest its all-time high near 57,050, with potential extension towards 57,600 in coming weeks, while placing key structural support at the 54,500–54,000 zone.

Several individual stocks saw significant movements. Texmaco Rail and Engineering shares surged 9% in early trade after securing a major international order worth $62.24 million (approximately Rs 535 crore) from CAMALCO SA. One Mobikwik Systems experienced dramatic volatility, opening over 6% lower due to a stake offload via a block deal by Net1 Applied Technologies Netherlands BV, but later reversed fortunes to scale gains of 13% and above. PB Fintech also saw block deals pushing its share price to red. Among Sensex stocks, BEL, Eternal, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, Maruti, and Bajaj Finance opened with gains, while Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SBI, TCS, and Reliance Industries declined. On the sectoral front, Nifty Auto, Financial Services, FMCG, Metal, Pharma, Consumer Durables, and Oil Gas traded higher, while Realty, PSU Bank, and IT sectors were muted. Western Carriers shares also rose after winning an order worth ₹500 crore.

The market's focus for the day was also on the expiry of monthly derivative contracts, which could trigger volatility as traders adjusted positions. Looking ahead, a critical event is the expiration of the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs around July 9th. The success of countries, including India, in negotiating bilateral trade deals with the US will be keenly watched, as positive news could significantly boost the market, while disappointment would constrain the rally. The RBI monthly bulletin also provided positive news, showcasing resilient economic activity, contributing to the overall confidence.