Source: Zhithon Finance
Author: Hu Xiangyuan
Although it is still unclear whether Manus's rise to fame is due to hype or genuine skill, the investment effects of AI applications are becoming increasingly evident alongside the accelerated implementation of AI applications catalyzed by DeepSeek.
In the early morning of March 6, China's AI team Monica announced the launch of the world's first general-purpose AI intelligent agent product, Manus. Due to its performance comparable to Open AI's large models, it immediately stirred excitement in both primary and secondary markets upon its release.
According to the official website, Manus can help users with travel planning, stock analysis, making PPTs, and analyzing earnings reports with just one click.
Subsequently, Manus quickly became a sensation in the technology circle, with some media even referring to it as the 'GPT moment' for AI Agents.
Meanwhile, the secondary market also saw a wave of celebration.
As of the close on March 6, in the A-share market,$Newcapec Electronics (300248.SZ)$、$Hand Enterprise Solutions (300170.SZ)$、$Digiwin Co.,Ltd. (300378.SZ)$AI Concept stocks collectively hit the daily limit. The AI Application software stocks in the Hong Kong stock market also performed well, with the Application software Sector rising over 10%, leading many sectors.$MING YUAN CLOUD (00909.HK)$Soaring over 23%,$TUYA-W (02391.HK)$Increased by over 14%.$KINGSOFT (03888.HK)$Increased by more than 11%, with other concept stocks also rising.
However, this surge did not last long and was disrupted by doubts from the outside world. The invitation-only testing for Manus led to most audiences and even industry insiders being unable to experience the innovative features brought by this AI Agent, which raised suspicions in the industry about it being a 'hunger marketing + shell trading' tactic. Under public pressure, Manus AI partner Zhang Tao repeatedly clarified that 'no market promotion budget has ever been invested', and the use of an invitation code system was 'inevitable due to limited server capacity.'
For now, let's set aside the authenticity of Manus, as it is undeniable that the market has a strong desire for AI Agent products.
Since DeepSeek became popular, the focus of the industry has shifted to who can create the next super Agent. Investors in the secondary market are eager to invest, and the common topic among them is who can strike gold first in the 'AI Agent commercialization application inaugural year.'
In December 2024, the first version of DeepSeek-V3 will be launched and concurrently made open-source. On January 20, 2025, the company will further release and open-source the DeepSeekR1 model, which excels in mathematics, programming, and natural language reasoning, even rivaling OpenAI's O1 model.
According to relevant media reports, DeepSeek's large model performs on par with global leading models like GPT, but its training costs are much lower than GPT's. The pre-training cost of DeepSeek's R1 model is only 5.576 million USD, which is less than one-tenth of the training cost of OpenAI's GPT-4o model.
It is evident that the emergence of DeepSeek significantly reduces the cost of model utilization, and being an open-source model is undoubtedly a substantial benefit to downstream AI applications, potentially accelerating the implementation of AI Agent and various vertical 'AI+ applications,' which are expected to achieve higher ROI and profitability sooner.
Data speaks for itself. A closer examination of the development history of this wave of AI can reveal similarities to the mobile Internet wave from 2010 to 2015, following the transmission pattern from hardware devices to software content to application scenarios.
During the mobile Internet wave from 2010 to 2015, the improvement of communication infrastructure and the emergence of blockbuster products marked the beginning of smart phones replacing feature phones, followed by a booming content industry and a wave of traditional industries 'embracing' the Internet.
It is reported that during the acceleration period of Inspur, China's content and application sectors flourished, and with the gradual increase in Smart Phone penetration, the number of mobile Internet users in China and the time spent online have also significantly increased. According to People.cn Co.,Ltd and China Internet Network Information Center, in 2015, the number of mobile Internet users in China reached 0.62 billion, and the average weekly online time per user increased from 20.5 hours in 2012 to 26.2 hours in 2015. Against this backdrop, applications such as Social Media, instant messaging, E-Commerce, online payment, and gaming have rapidly emerged, meeting the increasingly diverse needs of users. For example, the sales revenue of mobile games in China reached 4 billion and 72.4 billion yuan in 2014 and 2015 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 191% and 81%.
In contrast, looking at the transmission rules from Hardware Device Software Content to scene applications, accompanied by Deepseek igniting the AI boom, AI applications have evidently entered an acceleration period from 1 to 100.
According to BOC International, since 2024, the number of active users in domestic AI applications has been growing rapidly, with the leading application Doubao becoming the second AI application globally in terms of MAU, only behind ChatGPT. Following the high market attention caused by Deepseek in January this year, its MAU reached nearly 80 million by January 2025.
Since the second half of 2024, the usage of the Doubao large model has increased rapidly, with the daily average tokens used exceeding 4 trillion in December, growing more than 33 times compared to the launch period in May.
From the above, it can be seen that the growth slope of AI applications has approached that of leading mobile Internet apps like Meituan during the mobile Internet boom in 2014-2015. Leading applications such as Doubao are expected to achieve over 100 million monthly active users by 2025. Leading AI applications are approaching a "singularity moment" where quantitative changes lead to qualitative changes. As the number of domestic AI application users enters an acceleration growth period, the launch of DeepSeek is expected to further accelerate the commercialization of applications.
In fact, similar to the mobile internet wave of 10-15 years ago, reflected in stock market performance, the market trend started with Hardware devices and gradually transmitted and Diffused to Software content and application scenarios.
Similar to the early stage of the mobile internet wave from 10-15 years ago, in the 2023-2024 AI application wave during the 0-1 phase, the performance of the hardware end is more certain, and the increase in stock prices is more pronounced.
Using AI to "sell shovels."$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$For example, in the AI wave from the end of 2022 to now, due to the strong certainty of the computing power sector, NVIDIA, as the global leader in computing power, has benefited greatly. In 2023, the revenue from NVIDIA's data center business, where the AI chips are located, increased by 137%, and the proportion of operating income increased from 39% in 2021 to 78% in 2023. Since October 2022 (data as of 25/02/25, same below), NVIDIA's stock price has seen a maximum increase of 1318%.
Similarly, the leading light module company in the A-share market is also experiencing this.$Zhongji Innolight (300308.SZ)$Driven by the explosive trend of AI computing power, the light module performance in the A-share market is gradually being released, with the net profit attributable to shareholders in the A-share light module sector rebounding significantly from -8% in Q3 2023 to 101% in Q3 2024. Since October 2022, the Wind light module index has seen a maximum increase of 314%, with the leading Zhongji Innolight reaching an increase of 898%.
Therefore, it is not difficult to predict that with DeepSeek catalyzing the accelerated implementation of AI applications, the bullish effects of the Sector will obviously also transmit from Hardware devices to Software content and scene applications.
Specifically, in light of the insights from the rules of the mobile internet era, fields with clear application scenarios, easily verifiable business models, low investment costs in the Industry Chain, and high-frequency user demand are more likely to achieve commercialization first. In various verticals of AI applications, especially verticals such as office, Entertainment, Medical, Education, finance, and E-Commerce are particularly worthy of attention.
For example, in the field of AI + Office, AI technology can be widely applied to office environments, optimizing workflows, enhancing productivity, and providing a better user experience. Currently, the "AI + Office" sector is in the early stages of cultivating paid users, and its potential for future development cannot be overlooked. In the Hong Kong stock market,$KINGSOFT (03888.HK)$、$KINGDEE INT'L (00268.HK)$other AI + Office concept stocks may also benefit significantly from this wave of AI.
In summary, it can be seen that although it is still unclear whether Manus's rise is due to hype or actual capability, with DeepSeek catalyzing the accelerated implementation of AI applications, the investment effects of AI applications are becoming increasingly evident. In the application field, China's vast market and user base will provide fertile ground for innovations in AI applications, and domestic companies have great potential. Investors can follow the trend of the CSI Mobile Internet Index, where 'the stock market will begin with hardware and gradually expand towards software content and diffuse into practical applications.' After all, the principle of 'learning from history' is timeless.
Editor/Jeffy
