How the Russia-Ukraine conflict is straining Africa's agricultural sector
Three years into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Africa's food insecurity is worsening and the continent's economies are suffering despite UN efforts to find a lasting resolution to the food situation.
February 24 marked three years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that has severely disrupted global energy and food security, causing sharp increases in oil, wheat, fertiliser and gas prices.
The most impact has been felt by developing countries in Africa and other vulnerable regions which have high inflation that impedes economic growth.
The conflict has caused disruptions in the supply of food and energy. Ukraine is a major grain exporter while Russia is a leading energy exporter. The African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned the conflict has left Africa facing food shortages of at least 30-million tonnes, especially in wheat, maize and soybeans imported from both countries.
To address this, the African Development Bank's $1.5bn (R27.6bn) African Emergency Food Production Facility is a comprehensive initiative to support smallholder farmers in filling the food shortfall.
“The African Emergency Food Production Facility will provide 20-million African smallholder farmers with certified seeds. It will increase access to agricultural fertilisers and enable them to rapidly produce 38-million tonnes of food. This is a $12bn (R220.92bn) increase in food production in just two years,” said the bank.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP), in its Hunger Hotspots report, warned food shortages and high food prices will worsen this year.
“Acute food insecurity, already at catastrophic levels in several areas, is likely to worsen as the 2025 lean season approaches, typically starting in May. This deterioration is driven by high food prices, a severe economic crisis, conflict and insecurity, cross-border movements from Sudan and flooding,” it said.
“Low domestic supplies are also exerting upward pressure on domestic food prices, with Zambia and Malawi facing currency devaluation, while Zimbabwe is already suffering from double-digit inflation. Furthermore, rural farming households are experiencing liquidity constraints, which may lead to below normal agricultural activity during the onset of the planting season in October 2024,” said the WFP report.
In June 2023, President Cyril Ramaphosa was among African leaders who met Russian leader Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg in an unsuccessful attempt to mediate in the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
Chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa Wandile Sihlobo said the disruptions to the important Black Sea trade route due to the conflict worsened already elevated global agricultural commodity prices.
“Regarding the Black Sea war, food value chains have somewhat normalised now and established new routes,” said Sihlobo. South Africa's department of trade, industry and competition (DTIC) said Russia and Ukraine were relatively small trading partners with bilateral trade of R15bn and R515m respectively.
“South Africa's exports to Ukraine increased by 6% in 2022 and decreased by 80% in 2024. South Africa's exports to Russia increased most notably in 2020, 2023 and 2024. However, exports declined by 3% in 2021 and by 23% in 2022. The decline in 2021 could be attributed to the impact of Covid-19. However, the 2022 decline could be largely attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war, which resulted in logistical problems as well as payments for exports and imports,” said the DTIC.
The WFP has reportedly bought wheat from Black Sea ports, with 80% of its grain stock coming from Ukraine, to continue its humanitarian programmes.
The US department of agriculture has forecast that Ukraine's wheat exports for the 2024/2025 marketing year would be 15.2-million tonnes, an 18% decrease.
