"Model guidance was overwhelmingly above normal across the U.S. and most of Alaska for the upcoming summer season," Johnna Infanti, meteorologist for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center told USA TODAY via email. No part of the US is forecast to see a cooler-than-average summer, the report said.
The NOAA has issued an alarming seasonal outlook through its Climate Prediction Center (CPC), forecasting significantly above-average temperatures across nearly the entire country. Above normal temperatures most likely over the West, Southwest, Florida, and New England, Infanti told USA Today.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts a significantly hotter-than-average summer for the continental United States and much of Alaska, based on strong agreement across multiple climate model simulations. Regions most likely to face extended heat waves include:
The West and Southwest, particularly Southern California, Arizona, and Nevada
The Gulf Coast and Florida, where high humidity will intensify heat index levels
The Northeast and New England, areas that are typically less equipped to handle extreme heat
“This is one of the most confident summer outlooks we've ever issued,” said Johnna Infanti, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Model guidance overwhelmingly indicates above-normal temperatures across the US”
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With climate patterns intensifying, many U.S. cities are expected to endure extreme heat this summer. Here’s where the worst conditions are likely—and why.
Northeast & New England
Cities like Boston, Hartford, and New York City could see a spike in 90°F+ days. These regions often lack widespread air conditioning, making heat preparedness especially important.
Southwest & Four Corners
Already known for blistering summers, areas like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Albuquerque may hit record highs above 115°F. These cities face prolonged heatwaves that test both infrastructure and health systems.
Pacific Northwest
Normally temperate, Seattle and Portland face risks from multiple heat domes, echoing the deadly 2021 event. With limited cooling infrastructure, these cities remain highly vulnerable.
Florida & Gulf Coast
Expect a “wet sauna” effect with heat indices exceeding 110°F, due to high humidity. Conditions will be especially dangerous for outdoor workers and people with pre-existing health conditions.
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Dense urban areas absorb and trap heat due to dark rooftops, concrete, and minimal tree cover. This Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect makes cities significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas.
Philadelphia may face over 40 days above 90°F—up from its average of 34
Chicago could see consecutive days over 95°F
Houston and Dallas are at risk for sweltering nights with temps above 80°F
Vulnerable groups—low-income residents, seniors, and the chronically ill—face the greatest risks due to lack of cooling options and medical support.
Extreme heat is the top weather-related killer in the U.S., surpassing hurricanes and floods.
Those at highest risk:
Seniors (65+)
Young children
People with heart or lung conditions
Outdoor laborers (e.g., in agriculture, construction)
Common dangers include heat stroke, dehydration, and exhaustion—all of which can escalate quickly and become fatal.
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NOAA forecasts below-average rainfall in the Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and Great Plains, increasing wildfire risk.
High-risk areas in June:
Coastal Southeast
Central Texas
Four Corners
Northern & Southern California
By late summer, threats could expand to:
Hawaii
Great Basin
Southern Plains
Wildfire smoke will also reduce air quality for millions, particularly in downwind urban centers.
Strain on infrastructure
Heatwaves will push the limits of public systems:
Power grids in Texas, Arizona, and California may face blackouts or rolling brownouts
Water utilities could struggle with increased demand
Roads and railways risk buckling or warping
Emergency services will see higher call volumes during peak heat
Adapting to a Hotter Future
Personal safety tips
Drink water frequently (avoid sugary or alcoholic drinks)
Limit outdoor activity from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m.
Wear loose, light-colored clothing
Use air conditioning or visit public cooling centers
Community Solutions
Expand green spaces and tree coverage
Install reflective rooftops and pavements
Develop early-warning systems for heat events
Provide AC subsidies to low-income households
Some cities, like Phoenix and Los Angeles, have appointed Chief Heat Officers to lead local climate resilience efforts. More are expected to follow.
