Fuel Prices Expected to Fall as Dangote Refinery Makes Progress

Petrol prices in Nigeria are expected to decrease soon, influenced by adjustments in crude oil prices and decisions from OPEC+ members. Some fuel depots have already reduced prices for independent marketers, with retail prices currently ranging from N870 to N930 depending on location. Marketers attribute this anticipated reduction to the recent slump in crude oil prices.
Data indicates that various depots across the country have adjusted their ex-depot petrol prices, offering independent marketers slightly lower rates. For instance, A.Y.M Shafa and Pinnacle Warri have reduced their prices by approximately N5, setting their new prices at N855 and N854, respectively. First Fortune recorded the most significant drop of N6, now selling at N859. Other adjustments include Prudent Oghara (down N2 to N858), Matrix Warri (down N2 to N858), Rainoil Delta (down N1 to N859), Rainoil Lagos (down N1 to N839), Eterna (down N1 to N839), Dangote Depot (down N1 to N838), and Pinnacle (Lagos) (down N1 to N838).
Crude oil prices are slightly above $60 per barrel following OPEC’s decision to increase output among member countries. Brent crude settled at $60.23, a decrease of $1.06, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $1.16, closing at $57.13. The OPEC+ alliance agreed to accelerate oil production hikes for the second consecutive month, approving an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June. This adjustment brings the total combined output hikes for April, May, and June to 960,000 barrels per day, representing a 44% rollback of the 2.2 million barrels per day cut since 2022. The group may fully unwind its voluntary supply cuts by the end of October if compliance with production quotas improves.
Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, has accused some oil marketers and traders of attempting to frustrate President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms. Dangote clarified that his accusations were not directed at the NNPC leadership but rather at major oil marketers trying to undermine Tinubu’s policies. He commended Tinubu for appointing capable individuals to the NNPC, including Bayo Ojulari as the new GCEO and Ahmadu Kida as non-executive chairman, expressing confidence that the new team will address challenges, align with the President’s $1 trillion economy vision, and enhance the company’s operational excellence.
Dangote also highlighted recent events and structural reforms by NNPC, emphasizing a renewed focus on transparency, efficiency, and accountability. He believes the new NNPC leadership possesses the expertise to transform Nigeria’s oil industry. Edwin Devakumar, Vice President of Oil and Gas at Dangote Industries, noted that international oil companies (IOCs) prefer selling their crude in the international market rather than to local refiners, further complicating the situation. In a separate development, Dangote has announced plans to construct a large-scale sugar refinery in Ghana to reduce the country's reliance on sugar imports.