Cox Automotive’s is forecasting that new car sales will rise by 5.7% in 2025 to hit two million.

This is a 29% rise from the market low in 2022, though still 9.8% below pre-pandemic averages.

This positive outlook is influenced heavily by a strong start to the year, driven by fleet demand and a modest recovery in private retail registrations.

With the trends observed this year, fleets are expected to retain the majority of transactions (50%), while private registrations could rise by 2% to 47%.

Chinese brands BYD, Jaecoo, and Omoda have made “significant inroads” into the UK, with BYD achieving a 1.68% market share and 631% year-on-year growth in between January and April 2025.

Philip Nothard, Insight Director at Cox Automotive Europe, said: “Breaking the two million mark in 2025 would be a key milestone for the UK’s automotive recovery.

Electric vehicles (EVs) continue to gain traction, with Q1 2025 seeing record-breaking registrations.

But the UK is still projected to fall short of its Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, ending the year with 24% EV registrations, 4 per centage points below target.

By 2028, forecasts predict an even bigger gap, potentially missing the ZEV target of 52% new car sales by 16% if the pace of adoption remains consistent.