Ethereum (ETH) is currently at a critical juncture, navigating significant price challenges despite reclaiming a historical support level around $2,516 to $2,500. While the asset has shown remarkable resilience in holding this crucial zone, key momentum indicators are flashing warning signs, suggesting potential difficulties in sustaining upward momentum in the short term. This confluence of factors, exacerbated by escalating geopolitical tensions, positions Ethereum at a pivotal crossroads, with market participants closely observing its ability to maintain stability.

The $2,516 support level, affirmed by market analyst Rekt Capital, has historically served as a vital foundation for major price movements since 2021. Previous interactions with this zone have often preceded significant rallies, including moves towards the $4,000 mark. Following a recovery from sub-$2,000 levels earlier in 2025, ETH returned above this threshold. However, Ethereum now faces substantial resistance in the $2,750 to $2,830 range. This zone, particularly around the 200-day moving average at $2,642, has consistently acted as a ceiling, leading to retracements after attempts to break higher. A sustained breakout above this barrier is crucial for a potential advance towards $3,900, a level last approached in early 2024. Conversely, a failure to hold the $2,500–$2,516 zone could see support reappear around $2,200 or even deeper into the accumulation area between $1,500 and $1,800, or specifically towards $2,300.

Despite the price holding critical support, technical data reveals a weakening bullish conviction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) has declined to 49.54, dropping below the neutral 50 level, indicating a reduction in buyer strength after several weeks of price activity above $2,600. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reflects a decline in bullish pressure; with the MACD line at 59.04 and the signal line higher at 75.34, a negative histogram reading of -16.30 signals a bearish crossover, where selling activity is beginning to outweigh buying interest. Furthermore, Ethereum’s daily trading volume has plummeted by 45.66% to $21.6 billion. This significant drop in volume, contrasted with a modest price rebound (up 0.58% to approximately $2,533 at press time), suggests waning short-term conviction among traders.

The current market environment is further complicated by rising geopolitical instability, particularly the recent conflict between Israel and Iran. This geopolitical risk has triggered sharp risk-off reactions across global markets, including cryptocurrencies, leading to increased volatility and selling pressure. Despite this intense external pressure and a more than 14% drop from earlier highs, Ethereum has impressively maintained its critical $2,500 support level for the past five weeks, forming a solid base. Analysts emphasize that Ethereum’s continued stability around this zone is paramount to avoid deeper retracements and to keep bullish momentum alive, potentially setting the direction for broader altcoin performance in the coming weeks.