Ethereum (ETH) is currently demonstrating signs of a potential resurgence, having climbed an impressive 75% above its April lows. Despite this significant recovery, ETH still trades approximately 98% below its all-time highs, indicating substantial room for upward movement if bullish momentum intensifies. Market sentiment is increasingly shifting, with numerous analysts and investors identifying Ethereum as the primary catalyst for the much-anticipated altseason.

Top analyst Ted Pillows has presented a technical perspective, highlighting that Ethereum has once again retested its lower channel. This specific pattern has historically served as a precursor to explosive rallies in previous market cycles, notably in 2017 and 2021, where it led to massive gains. Many observers believe that the current cycle could mirror these past performances, setting the stage for another powerful breakout. With macroeconomic conditions remaining somewhat uncertain but risk appetite gradually increasing across cryptocurrency markets, Ethereum's price action is under intense scrutiny. If the historical pattern holds true, ETH could be on the cusp of a significant upward surge, potentially pulling the broader altcoin market along with it. Whether this pivotal moment results in a historic launchpad or merely a prolonged consolidation phase remains to be seen, but Ethereum undeniably holds a central position in current market discussions.

Ethereum is trading at a critical technical juncture, having successfully reclaimed the $2,400 mark. This level has become a battleground where bulls and bears are locked in a struggle for dominance. While buyers have managed to defend this key support zone, upward momentum has been somewhat subdued, largely due to cautious broader market sentiment. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and tightening macroeconomic conditions continue to influence risk appetite, leading many investors to hesitate before fully committing to high-beta assets such as Ethereum. Nevertheless, the long-term technical setup is drawing considerable attention from experienced analysts.

Pillows' analysis points to a recurring historical pattern that could significantly influence Ethereum's trajectory in the coming months. According to his findings, ETH has retested its lower trend channel once in each major market cycle, and every such retest has been followed by extraordinary rallies. In 2017, this setup saw Ethereum surge an astounding 300x, while in 2021, it delivered a substantial 50x return. If history repeats itself, even partially, a conservative 6x move could propel ETH beyond the $10,000 mark. This technical setup is considered sound and aligns with the prevailing sentiment that Ethereum could indeed lead the next altcoin rally, especially if Bitcoin achieves price discovery. Despite the lingering uncertainty, ETH's current position is a pivotal zone. If bulls can maintain the structural integrity and push towards range highs, the conditions for a breakout may soon materialize.

Currently, Ethereum is consolidating around $2,422 after reclaiming the crucial $2,400 support zone. However, chart analysis indicates that bulls are encountering significant resistance just above current levels. On the 12-hour timeframe, ETH has consistently struggled to breach the 50-period and 100-period simple moving averages, which are presently situated at $2,518 and $2,536, respectively. This cluster of resistance has effectively capped all recent attempts to move higher, reinforcing its role as a short-term barrier that bulls must decisively overcome to regain upward momentum.

Ethereum's failed breakdown below $2,200 earlier in the week now appears to have been a bear trap, as buyers aggressively stepped in to reclaim lost ground. Despite this, without a definitive break above $2,530, Ethereum remains susceptible to another retest of the $2,300–$2,200 support zone. The 200-period SMA, positioned near $2,160, remains a critical downside level to monitor. Should the price fail to hold above this level on future dips, bears could potentially regain control. For the time being, Ethereum appears to be range-bound, caught between broader macro uncertainty and the optimistic hopes for an altcoin season. A decisive breakout above $2,550 would serve as confirmation of renewed strength and open the pathway for a push towards the $2,800 level.