US stock market futures stayed mostly flat on Thursday morning as investors waited for the June jobs report, a crucial signal for the Federal Reserve’s next steps on interest rates. After the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Wednesday, futures on the S&P 500 (ES=F), Dow Jones (YM=F), and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) barely moved, reflecting cautious optimism on Wall Street. The market pause comes at a key moment as President Donald Trump pushes forward economic and trade decisions, and analysts keep a close watch on how labor data could shape expectations for Fed rate cuts in the coming months.

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All eyes are on the June nonfarm payrolls data, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Economists are predicting an increase of 110,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.3%, up from 4.0% previously.

Any signs of labor market weakness could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates sooner, especially amid broader economic uncertainties. The data will also serve as a final marker before the market closes for the Independence Day holiday.
That’s the big question on investors’ minds. With the labor market already showing subtle signs of cooling, another softer-than-expected jobs report could push the Fed toward easing rates more aggressively.

Traders have already priced in the possibility of at least two rate cuts in the second half of 2025. If the jobs number disappoints, those expectations may rise further. The Fed’s next policy meeting will be closely influenced by this jobs data, and any shift in their tone could move markets significantly.


President Trump’s recent economic stance is shaping market sentiment in a big way. His ongoing criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and growing speculation that he may announce a replacement has increased talk of faster monetary easing.

At the same time, Trump’s successful trade deal with Vietnam has sparked optimism, with investors hopeful for more international agreements that could soften the blow of the July 9 tariff deadline. The possibility of reduced tariffs and friendlier trade terms could provide a cushion to the economy in the face of slowing job growth.

Yes, and it’s directly tied to easing tensions between the US and China. The Biden-era export curbs on advanced tech have now been relaxed under President Trump, with restrictions on chip design software lifted. This move sent shares of Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) higher in premarket trading on Thursday.

Investors welcomed the decision as a sign of improving US-China relations, particularly in the high-stakes semiconductor industry. This shift could help stabilize the tech sector, which has been under pressure from supply chain issues and trade uncertainty.

In another major development, Trump’s massive tax and spending bill passed a key procedural vote in the House of Representatives on Thursday. House Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed that the administration now has enough support to push the bill through by Friday, July 4—Trump’s stated deadline.

The bill includes sweeping tax cuts and expanded spending in infrastructure and defense, and its approval would represent a major legislative win for the President heading into the second half of the year. Markets are watching closely, as the package could stimulate economic growth and influence Fed policy.

These small moves reflect caution as investors await the release of the at , expected to show a gain of about and a rise in unemployment to .

What does the holiday schedule look like for markets?

Because of the Fourth of July holiday, US stock markets will close early at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday and remain closed all day Friday. Investors are using the shorter week to rebalance portfolios and brace for the next set of macroeconomic signals, starting with Thursday’s jobs report.

The US stock market today is holding steady, but beneath the surface, there’s a lot at stake. The June jobs report, Trump’s economic policies, and global trade shifts are all converging to shape the next moves in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. With rate cuts, tariffs, and tax bills on the line, this is a moment of high anticipation—and traders are watching every number closely.

FAQs:

A: It’s released at 8:30 a.m. ET and can move stocks if jobs data shows weakness, hinting at Fed rate cuts.

Q2: Why are Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 futures flat ahead of the holiday?
A: Investors are waiting for the June jobs report and watching Trump’s economic and trade decisions before making moves.