The World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Dr. Ndiame Diop, has stated that Nigeria’s rapidly growing working population, expected to reach around 100 million in the next 25 years, presents a unique opportunity for the country to become a major driver of global economic growth.

Diop noted that this growth would outpace that of Africa and have a global impact, particularly in light of the aging populations in East Asia and Europe. 

However, he emphasised that realizing this potential depends on Nigeria’s ability to create millions of productive and formal employment opportunities for its increasingly educated and tech-savvy youth.

Dr. Diop made these remarks while delivering the Distinguished Personality Lecture Series organized by the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Ibadan. 

The lecture, titled “Leveraging Agricultural Transformation for Sustainable Economic Development in Nigeria: Key Considerations,” was chaired by the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu, and held at the university’s Trenchard Hall on Tuesday.

Speaking, Dr Diop said Nigeria’s economy needs to not only grow at a faster pace but also undergo a transformation, noting that the transformation must accelerate the movement of workers from low productivity, low-paying and often informal jobs to more productive and higher-paying positions.

He highlights how agricultural transformation strengthens the overall competitiveness of the economy, drawing on economic theory and real-world examples to emphasize its vital role in successful economic transformation and the path to higher income levels.

Dr Diop said, “Nigeria faces a significant demographic shift: approximately 5.5 million Nigerians enter the labor force each year, and its working age population is expected to grow by about 100 million in the next 25 years. 

“This rapid increase presents a unique opportunity for Nigeria to become a major driver of economic growth, not just in Africa, but globally, considering the aging populations in East Asia and Europe. 

“However, realizing this potential hinges on Nigeria’s ability to generate millions additional productive and formal employment opportunities for increasingly educated and tech-savvy young people.

“Creating such a large number of quality jobs is a substantial challenge. In 2019, only about 8 percent of employed youth in Nigeria held formal jobs. Notably, African nations tend to create significantly fewer formal jobs per unit of GDP growth compared to other regions, generating roughly half the number seen in East Asia. 

“This low proportion of workers in formal sectors, and the resulting dominance of informal, Iow productivity work, explains why securing employment in most African countries doesn’t guarantee an escape from poverty. In fact, in many African nations, including Nigeria, the majority of workers do not earn enough to reliably enter or remain in the middle class.”

He said further, “To substantially improve employment outcomes, Nigeria’s economy needs to not only grow at a faster pace but also undergo a transformation. This transformation must accelerate the movement of workers from Iow- productivity, low-paying, and often informal jobs to more productive higher-paying positions. 

“While individual worker or entrepreneur capabilities contribute to labor productivity, the reality is that average productivity levels vary considerably across sectors, with agriculture typically having the lowest levels in developing countries. When at least one-third of the workforce is engaged in agriculture, boosting agricult productivity becomes paramount for poverty reduction.”

In his remarks, the Minister said President Bola Tinubu innovation-driven policies are steadily moving the country’s agriculture towards mechanization, agro-industrialization, and global market integration through improved line budgeting, infrastructure investment, access to better financing, and public-private sector synergy.

He said “The incremental success of these policies is evident in the latest National Bureau of Statistics report, which shows encouraging signs for our economy and the agriculture sector. With GDP growth of 3.84 percent in Q4 2024—surpassing the 3.46 percent recorded in Q4 2023 and Q3 2024—we are witnessing the fruits of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s bold economic reforms.

“While the services sector led this growth at 5.37 percent, contributing 57.38 percent to GDP, agriculture’s 1.76 percent growth and 25.59 percent contribution remain vital. The industrial sector grew by 2.00 percent, contributing 17.03 percent. 

“These figures reveal both progress and the untapped potential in our agricultural industry, which employs over 70 percent of our rural population and holds immense promise for poverty reduction, food security, and industrialization.

“This sector’s appreciable outcome has benefited from this administration’s policy consistency, which prioritised improved budgetary funding and access to finance, increasing technological innovation and mechanisation, climate resilience, infrastructure development, public-private partnership, and improved security.”

According to the Minister, the agricultural sector has enjoyed increased budgetary allocation since President Tinubu’s administration’s inception, saying “from N228.4 billion (1.05% of the 2023 budget) to N362.94 billion (1.32% of the 2024 budget), and N826.5 billion (1.7% of the 2025 budget). 

“This is in addition to the N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, which the President created in 2023 to address agricultural financing challenges upon declaring a state of emergency in the sector. The Central Bank of Nigeria also donated 2.15 million bags of fertilizer worth N100 billion to support farming.”

He said, with the improved funding, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security has been implementing innovative programmes, including the National Agriculture Growth Scheme-Agro-pocket, where millions of farmers are supported through training on Good Agricultural Practices (GAP), certified inputs such as improved seeds and organic and inorganic fertilizers and irrigation equipment at highly subsidized prices to enhance their production, increase productivity and ultimately, guarantee higher incomes for farmers.”

Earlier in his addresses, the Vice Chancellor, UI, Prof Kayode Adebowale commended the organisers noting that agriculture as a vital sector in Nigeria has continued to contribute significantly to the economy by providing livelihoods, food security, and raw materials, while also playing a vital role in economic diversification and foreign exchange earnings.

He said a sable economic development is possible in Nigeria by leveraging the right set of technologies that can promote agricultural transformation.

The event had in attendance officials from the Ministries, Departments and Agencies under the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, officials from across faculty, department and top management staff of the school.